Illinois State
MVFC · 6-4 vs FCS · 6-4 overall
Strength of record
#52
A #25-level team matches it 88% of the time
Power
#20
+9.8 pts · likely #10–45
Strength of schedule
31.7
#64 of 128
Strength of victory
14.5
#77
Record SOS
0.457
Opp. 43.2% · Opp. opp. 50.8%
Remaining SOS
63.1
1 games left
Record by opponent quality
Tier 1
#25-level or better
1-2
Tier 2
Strong
0-2
Tier 3
Middle
2-0
Tier 4
Weak
3-0
- Tier 1, #25-level or better:
- Would be favored over a #25-level team
- Tier 2, Strong:
- Beats a #25-level team 25–50% of the time
- Tier 3, Middle:
- Beats a #25-level team 10–25% of the time
- Tier 4, Weak:
- Beats a #25-level team under 10% of the time
Counted games (10)
Opponent strength leaves out every game against Illinois State. p = Φ((strength + site − 8.98) / 14.72), the chance a #25-level team loses that game. SOS is the average p; SOV is the average over wins.
| Wk | Opponent | Result | Opp. strength | Site | p | Tier | Game power |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | vs Dayton | W 41-0 | −16.5 | −2.7 | 0.028 | 4 | +17.2 |
| 2 | at Western Illinois | W 34-18 | −18.5 | +2.7 | 0.046 | 4 | +0.4 |
| 3 | at Eastern Illinois | L 13-14 | +0.7 | +2.7 | 0.353 | 2 | +2.4 |
| 4 | vs Lindenwood | W 48-17 | −14.0 | −2.7 |
Remaining FCS games
- Wk 12: at North Dakota · p 0.631