Cal Poly
Big Sky · 3-5 vs FCS · 4-6 overall
Strength of record
#73
A #25-level team matches it 97% of the time
Power
#76
−1.9 pts · likely #48–98
Strength of schedule
40.7
#25 of 128
Strength of victory
50.4
#2
Record SOS
0.476
Opp. 44.9% · Opp. opp. 52.8%
Remaining SOS
50.1
2 games left
Record by opponent quality
Tier 1
#25-level or better
2-1
Tier 2
Strong
1-2
Tier 3
Middle
0-0
Tier 4
Weak
0-2
- Tier 1, #25-level or better:
- Would be favored over a #25-level team
- Tier 2, Strong:
- Beats a #25-level team 25–50% of the time
- Tier 3, Middle:
- Beats a #25-level team 10–25% of the time
- Tier 4, Weak:
- Beats a #25-level team under 10% of the time
Counted games (8)
Opponent strength leaves out every game against Cal Poly. p = Φ((strength + site − 8.98) / 14.72), the chance a #25-level team loses that game. SOS is the average p; SOV is the average over wins.
| Wk | Opponent | Result | Opp. strength | Site | p | Tier | Game power |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | vs Idaho | W 38-34 | +11.4 | −2.2 | 0.506 | 1 | +12.2 |
| 3 | vs San Diego | L 35-38 | −11.6 | −2.2 | 0.061 | 4 | −13.9 |
| 4 | at Eastern Washington | W 31-27 | +3.8 | +2.2 | 0.419 | 2 | +7.9 |
| 5 | vs Weber State | L 34-42 OT | +9.0 | −2.2 |
Remaining FCS games
- Wk 10: vs Northern Arizona · p 0.533
- Wk 12: at UC Davis · p 0.468
Not counted (opponent not FCS)
- Wk 1: vs Central WashingtonDII · W 24-17
- Wk 2: at San José StateFBS · L 20-30