Montana State
Big Sky · 4-1 vs FCS · 4-2 overall
Strength of record
#13
A #25-level team matches it 28% of the time
Power
#2
+25.9 pts · likely #1–6
Strength of schedule
41.0
#25 of 129
Strength of victory
30.7
#16
Record SOS
0.627
Opp. 70.0% · Opp. opp. 48.2%
Remaining SOS
44.6
10 games left
Record by opponent quality
Tier 1
#25-level or better
1-1
Tier 2
Strong
1-0
Tier 3
Middle
2-0
Tier 4
Weak
0-0
- Tier 1, #25-level or better:
- Would be favored over a #25-level team
- Tier 2, Strong:
- Beats a #25-level team 25–50% of the time
- Tier 3, Middle:
- Beats a #25-level team 10–25% of the time
- Tier 4, Weak:
- Beats a #25-level team under 10% of the time
Counted games (5)
Opponent strength leaves out every game against Montana State. p = Φ((strength + site − 8.98) / 14.72), the chance a #25-level team loses that game. SOS is the average p; SOV is the average over wins.
| Wk | Opponent | Result | Opp. strength | Site | p | Tier | Game power |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | vs South Dakota State | L 24-30 OT | +24.7 | −2.3 | 0.818 | 1 | +20.2 |
| 3 | vs San Diego | W 41-7 | −3.0 | −2.3 | 0.165 | 3 | +28.0 |
| 4 | vs Mercyhurst | W 17-0 | −2.1 | −2.3 | 0.181 | 3 | +13.7 |
| 5 | vs Eastern Washington | W 57-3 | +3.9 |
Remaining FCS games
- Wk 7: vs Idaho State · p 0.222
- Wk 9: at Cal Poly · p 0.482
- Wk 10: at Northern Colorado · p 0.211
- Wk 11: vs Weber State · p 0.241
- Wk 12: vs UC Davis · p 0.606
- Wk 13: at Montana · p 0.723
- Wk 15: vs Yale · p 0.376
- Wk 16: vs Stephen F. Austin · p 0.536
- Wk 17: vs (N) Illinois State · p 0.450
- Wk 17: vs Montana · p 0.608
Not counted (opponent not FCS)
- Wk 1: at OregonFBS · L 13-59