Missouri State
MVFC · 6-1 vs FCS · 6-2 overall
Strength of record
#8
A #25-level team matches it 8.5% of the time
Power
#5
+15.9 pts · likely #4–23
Strength of schedule
44.1
#19 of 129
Strength of victory
40.0
#3
Record SOS
0.591
Opp. 60.7% · Opp. opp. 56.0%
Remaining SOS
57.2
4 games left
Record by opponent quality
Tier 1
#25-level or better
2-1
Tier 2
Strong
2-0
Tier 3
Middle
2-0
Tier 4
Weak
0-0
- Tier 1, #25-level or better:
- Would be favored over a #25-level team
- Tier 2, Strong:
- Beats a #25-level team 25–50% of the time
- Tier 3, Middle:
- Beats a #25-level team 10–25% of the time
- Tier 4, Weak:
- Beats a #25-level team under 10% of the time
Counted games (7)
Opponent strength leaves out every game against Missouri State. p = Φ((strength + site − 8.98) / 14.72), the chance a #25-level team loses that game. SOS is the average p; SOV is the average over wins.
| Wk | Opponent | Result | Opp. strength | Site | p | Tier | Game power |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | at Montana | L 24-29 | +14.0 | +2.1 | 0.685 | 1 | +11.5 |
| 3 | vs Lindenwood | W 28-14 | −2.6 | −2.1 | 0.177 | 3 | +9.6 |
| 4 | at UT Martin | W 31-24 | +15.0 | +2.1 | 0.709 | 1 | +23.1 |
| 5 | vs Youngstown State | W 38-31 | +7.2 | −2.1 |
Remaining FCS games
- Wk 10: vs Southern Illinois · p 0.267
- Wk 11: at Murray State · p 0.178
- Wk 12: at North Dakota State · p 0.915
- Wk 13: vs South Dakota State · p 0.930
Not counted (opponent not FCS)
- Wk 2: at Ball StateFBS · L 34-42