Illinois State
MVFC · 5-2 vs FCS · 5-3 overall
Strength of record
#23
A #25-level team matches it 45% of the time
Power
#32
+7.2 pts · likely #15–59
Strength of schedule
38.1
#32 of 129
Strength of victory
26.0
#34
Record SOS
0.538
Opp. 49.5% · Opp. opp. 62.5%
Remaining SOS
46.1
6 games left
Record by opponent quality
Tier 1
#25-level or better
0-2
Tier 2
Strong
2-0
Tier 3
Middle
3-0
Tier 4
Weak
0-0
- Tier 1, #25-level or better:
- Would be favored over a #25-level team
- Tier 2, Strong:
- Beats a #25-level team 25–50% of the time
- Tier 3, Middle:
- Beats a #25-level team 10–25% of the time
- Tier 4, Weak:
- Beats a #25-level team under 10% of the time
Counted games (7)
Opponent strength leaves out every game against Illinois State. p = Φ((strength + site − 8.98) / 14.72), the chance a #25-level team loses that game. SOS is the average p; SOV is the average over wins.
| Wk | Opponent | Result | Opp. strength | Site | p | Tier | Game power |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | at North Alabama | W 24-17 | +4.4 | +2.1 | 0.432 | 2 | +13.3 |
| 3 | vs Western Illinois | W 51-34 | −6.8 | −2.1 | 0.112 | 3 | +7.5 |
| 4 | vs Eastern Illinois | W 31-7 | −7.0 | −2.1 | 0.110 | 3 | +13.7 |
| 5 | vs North Dakota State | L 10-42 | +25.3 |
Remaining FCS games
- Wk 10: vs Youngstown State · p 0.409
- Wk 11: at Northern Iowa · p 0.363
- Wk 12: at Indiana State · p 0.220
- Wk 13: vs North Dakota · p 0.585
- Wk 14: at Southeast Missouri State · p 0.597
- Wk 15: at UC Davis · p 0.590
Not counted (opponent not FCS)
- Wk 1: at IowaFBS · L 0-40