Illinois State
MVFC · 5-1 vs FCS · 5-2 overall
Strength of record
#25
A #25-level team matches it 46% of the time
Power
#42
+4.4 pts · likely #22–69
Strength of schedule
27.8
#83 of 130
Strength of victory
26.4
#24
Record SOS
0.486
Opp. 46.1% · Opp. opp. 53.5%
Remaining SOS
42.7
4 games left
Record by opponent quality
Tier 1
#25-level or better
1-0
Tier 2
Strong
0-1
Tier 3
Middle
4-0
Tier 4
Weak
0-0
- Tier 1, #25-level or better:
- Would be favored over a #25-level team
- Tier 2, Strong:
- Beats a #25-level team 25–50% of the time
- Tier 3, Middle:
- Beats a #25-level team 10–25% of the time
- Tier 4, Weak:
- Beats a #25-level team under 10% of the time
Counted games (6)
Opponent strength leaves out every game against Illinois State. p = Φ((strength + site − 8.98) / 14.72), the chance a #25-level team loses that game. SOS is the average p; SOV is the average over wins.
| Wk | Opponent | Result | Opp. strength | Site | p | Tier | Game power |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | vs Valparaiso | W 28-21 | −3.6 | −1.4 | 0.171 | 3 | +3.3 |
| 3 | vs Eastern Illinois | W 35-7 | −4.0 | −1.4 | 0.164 | 3 | +20.7 |
| 5 | vs Southern Illinois | L 14-19 | +4.7 | −1.4 | 0.349 | 2 | −1.0 |
| 6 | at Northern Iowa | W 23-21 | +8.3 |
Remaining FCS games
- Wk 9: at North Dakota State · p 0.624
- Wk 10: vs Youngstown State · p 0.321
- Wk 11: at South Dakota State · p 0.659
- Wk 12: vs Western Illinois · p 0.103
Not counted (opponent not FCS)
- Wk 1: at WisconsinFBS · L 0-38