St. Thomas (MN)
Pioneer · 3-2 vs FCS · 5-2 overall
Strength of record
#61
A #25-level team matches it 94% of the time
Power
#73
−1.6 pts · likely #43–101
Strength of schedule
27.4
#87 of 128
Strength of victory
19.0
#51
Record SOS
0.484
Opp. 46.7% · Opp. opp. 51.8%
Remaining SOS
13.3
5 games left
Record by opponent quality
Tier 1
#25-level or better
0-1
Tier 2
Strong
1-0
Tier 3
Middle
0-0
Tier 4
Weak
2-1
- Tier 1, #25-level or better:
- Would be favored over a #25-level team
- Tier 2, Strong:
- Beats a #25-level team 25–50% of the time
- Tier 3, Middle:
- Beats a #25-level team 10–25% of the time
- Tier 4, Weak:
- Beats a #25-level team under 10% of the time
Counted games (5)
Opponent strength leaves out every game against St. Thomas (MN). p = Φ((strength + site − 8.98) / 14.72), the chance a #25-level team loses that game. SOS is the average p; SOV is the average over wins.
| Wk | Opponent | Result | Opp. strength | Site | p | Tier | Game power |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | at North Dakota | L 26-62 | +16.1 | +2.4 | 0.740 | 1 | −15.0 |
| 3 | vs Southern Utah | W 28-26 | +10.1 | −2.4 | 0.466 | 2 | +8.5 |
| 4 | vs San Diego | W 50-17 | −8.2 | −2.4 | 0.093 | 4 | +20.6 |
| 5 | at Presbyterian | L 21-55 | −16.6 |
Remaining FCS games
- Wk 8: at Marist · p 0.236
- Wk 9: vs Davidson · p 0.003
- Wk 10: at Butler · p 0.271
- Wk 11: vs Drake · p 0.084
- Wk 12: at Valparaiso · p 0.072
Not counted (opponent not FCS)
- Wk 1: vs Winona StateDII · W 15-9
- Wk 2: vs Northern MichiganDII · W 56-14