St. Thomas (MN)
Pioneer · 3-2 vs FCS · 5-2 overall
Strength of record
#67
A #25-level team matches it 96% of the time
Power
#81
−2.7 pts · likely #48–104
Strength of schedule
24.7
#95 of 128
Strength of victory
15.9
#45
Record SOS
0.440
Opp. 39.0% · Opp. opp. 54.0%
Remaining SOS
14.8
5 games left
Record by opponent quality
Tier 1
#25-level or better
0-1
Tier 2
Strong
1-0
Tier 3
Middle
0-0
Tier 4
Weak
2-1
- Tier 1, #25-level or better:
- Would be favored over a #25-level team
- Tier 2, Strong:
- Beats a #25-level team 25–50% of the time
- Tier 3, Middle:
- Beats a #25-level team 10–25% of the time
- Tier 4, Weak:
- Beats a #25-level team under 10% of the time
Counted games (5)
Opponent strength leaves out every game against St. Thomas (MN). p = Φ((strength + site − 8.98) / 14.72), the chance a #25-level team loses that game. SOS is the average p; SOV is the average over wins.
| Wk | Opponent | Result | Opp. strength | Site | p | Tier | Game power |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | at North Dakota | L 26-62 | +14.0 | +2.6 | 0.698 | 1 | −16.7 |
| 3 | vs Southern Utah | W 28-26 | +7.6 | −2.6 | 0.394 | 2 | +5.5 |
| 4 | vs San Diego | W 50-17 | −9.8 | −2.6 | 0.073 | 4 | +18.1 |
| 5 | at Presbyterian | L 21-55 | −16.6 |
Remaining FCS games
- Wk 8: at Marist · p 0.218
- Wk 9: vs Davidson · p 0.003
- Wk 10: at Butler · p 0.319
- Wk 11: vs Drake · p 0.091
- Wk 12: at Valparaiso · p 0.112
Not counted (opponent not FCS)
- Wk 1: vs Winona StateDII · W 15-9
- Wk 2: vs Northern MichiganDII · W 56-14