Valparaiso
Pioneer · 1-3 vs FCS · 2-3 overall
Strength of record
#107
A #25-level team matches it 100% of the time
Power
#117
−13.4 pts · likely #96–122
Strength of schedule
14.2
#114 of 128
Strength of victory
3.5
1 wins
Record SOS
0.276
Opp. 18.8% · Opp. opp. 45.3%
Remaining SOS
12.4
6 games left
Record by opponent quality
Tier 1
#25-level or better
0-0
Tier 2
Strong
0-1
Tier 3
Middle
0-1
Tier 4
Weak
1-1
- Tier 1, #25-level or better:
- Would be favored over a #25-level team
- Tier 2, Strong:
- Beats a #25-level team 25–50% of the time
- Tier 3, Middle:
- Beats a #25-level team 10–25% of the time
- Tier 4, Weak:
- Beats a #25-level team under 10% of the time
Counted games (4)
Opponent strength leaves out every game against Valparaiso. p = Φ((strength + site − 8.98) / 14.72), the chance a #25-level team loses that game. SOS is the average p; SOV is the average over wins.
| Wk | Opponent | Result | Opp. strength | Site | p | Tier | Game power |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | at Murray State | L 18-27 | −14.1 | +2.8 | 0.084 | 4 | −18.7 |
| 3 | at Indiana State | L 16-39 | −1.1 | +2.8 | 0.309 | 2 | −20.4 |
| 4 | vs Butler | L 28-33 | −4.1 | −2.8 | 0.141 | 3 | −12.2 |
| 5 | at Morehead State | W 37-3 | −20.4 | +2.8 |
Remaining FCS games
- Wk 6: vs Drake · p 0.107
- Wk 7: at San Diego · p 0.126
- Wk 8: vs Presbyterian · p 0.087
- Wk 10: at Dayton · p 0.250
- Wk 11: at Stetson · p 0.032
- Wk 12: vs St. Thomas (MN) · p 0.139
Not counted (opponent not FCS)
- Wk 1: vs Lawrence TechNon-NCAA · W 59-13