Illinois State
MVFC · 5-2 vs FCS · 5-3 overall
Strength of record
#25
A #25-level team matches it 54% of the time
Power
#28
+8.2 pts · likely #15–50
Strength of schedule
34.7
#44 of 129
Strength of victory
20.6
#50
Record SOS
0.499
Opp. 47.8% · Opp. opp. 54.2%
Remaining SOS
64.7
9 games left
Record by opponent quality
Tier 1
#25-level or better
1-1
Tier 2
Strong
0-1
Tier 3
Middle
3-0
Tier 4
Weak
1-0
- Tier 1, #25-level or better:
- Would be favored over a #25-level team
- Tier 2, Strong:
- Beats a #25-level team 25–50% of the time
- Tier 3, Middle:
- Beats a #25-level team 10–25% of the time
- Tier 4, Weak:
- Beats a #25-level team under 10% of the time
Counted games (7)
Opponent strength leaves out every game against Illinois State. p = Φ((strength + site − 8.98) / 14.72), the chance a #25-level team loses that game. SOS is the average p; SOV is the average over wins.
| Wk | Opponent | Result | Opp. strength | Site | p | Tier | Game power |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | vs Morehead State | W 41-13 | −18.8 | −2.4 | 0.020 | 4 | +7.3 |
| 3 | at Eastern Illinois | W 42-30 | −6.2 | +2.4 | 0.193 | 3 | +8.3 |
| 4 | vs North Alabama | W 38-36 OT | −6.1 | −2.4 | 0.118 | 3 | −4.5 |
| 6 | vs North Dakota State | L 16-33 | +34.3 |
Remaining FCS games
- Wk 10: vs Northern Iowa · p 0.223
- Wk 11: at Indiana State · p 0.261
- Wk 12: at South Dakota State · p 0.842
- Wk 13: vs Southern Illinois · p 0.582
- Wk 14: at Southeastern Louisiana · p 0.711
- Wk 15: at North Dakota State · p 0.966
- Wk 17: vs (N) Montana State · p 0.864
- Wk 17: at UC Davis · p 0.742
- Wk 17: at Villanova · p 0.633
Not counted (opponent not FCS)
- Wk 1: at OklahomaFBS · L 3-35