Illinois State
MVFC · 6-2 vs FCS · 6-3 overall
Strength of record
#21
A #25-level team matches it 42% of the time
Power
#25
+8.9 pts · likely #14–47
Strength of schedule
34.2
#49 of 129
Strength of victory
21.5
#48
Record SOS
0.479
Opp. 44.7% · Opp. opp. 54.3%
Remaining SOS
70.0
8 games left
Record by opponent quality
Tier 1
#25-level or better
1-2
Tier 2
Strong
0-0
Tier 3
Middle
4-0
Tier 4
Weak
1-0
- Tier 1, #25-level or better:
- Would be favored over a #25-level team
- Tier 2, Strong:
- Beats a #25-level team 25–50% of the time
- Tier 3, Middle:
- Beats a #25-level team 10–25% of the time
- Tier 4, Weak:
- Beats a #25-level team under 10% of the time
Counted games (8)
Opponent strength leaves out every game against Illinois State. p = Φ((strength + site − 8.98) / 14.72), the chance a #25-level team loses that game. SOS is the average p; SOV is the average over wins.
| Wk | Opponent | Result | Opp. strength | Site | p | Tier | Game power |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | vs Morehead State | W 41-13 | −19.7 | −2.1 | 0.018 | 4 | +6.9 |
| 3 | at Eastern Illinois | W 42-30 | −5.5 | +2.1 | 0.201 | 3 | +8.8 |
| 4 | vs North Alabama | W 38-36 OT | −5.8 | −2.1 | 0.126 | 3 | −4.0 |
| 6 | vs North Dakota State | L 16-33 | +32.4 |
Remaining FCS games
- Wk 11: at Indiana State · p 0.349
- Wk 12: at South Dakota State · p 0.783
- Wk 13: vs Southern Illinois · p 0.577
- Wk 14: at Southeastern Louisiana · p 0.744
- Wk 15: at North Dakota State · p 0.955
- Wk 17: vs (N) Montana State · p 0.878
- Wk 17: at UC Davis · p 0.683
- Wk 17: at Villanova · p 0.628
Not counted (opponent not FCS)
- Wk 1: at OklahomaFBS · L 3-35