Illinois State
MVFC · 5-2 vs FCS · 5-3 overall
Strength of record
#21
A #25-level team matches it 43% of the time
Power
#32
+7.6 pts · likely #15–58
Strength of schedule
38.9
#30 of 129
Strength of victory
27.1
#31
Record SOS
0.572
Opp. 54.5% · Opp. opp. 62.7%
Remaining SOS
45.9
6 games left
Record by opponent quality
Tier 1
#25-level or better
1-2
Tier 2
Strong
1-0
Tier 3
Middle
3-0
Tier 4
Weak
0-0
- Tier 1, #25-level or better:
- Would be favored over a #25-level team
- Tier 2, Strong:
- Beats a #25-level team 25–50% of the time
- Tier 3, Middle:
- Beats a #25-level team 10–25% of the time
- Tier 4, Weak:
- Beats a #25-level team under 10% of the time
Counted games (7)
Opponent strength leaves out every game against Illinois State. p = Φ((strength + site − 8.98) / 14.72), the chance a #25-level team loses that game. SOS is the average p; SOV is the average over wins.
| Wk | Opponent | Result | Opp. strength | Site | p | Tier | Game power |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | at North Alabama | W 24-17 | +3.7 | +1.8 | 0.406 | 2 | +12.4 |
| 3 | vs Western Illinois | W 51-34 | −6.5 | −1.8 | 0.121 | 3 | +8.4 |
| 4 | vs Eastern Illinois | W 31-7 | −4.8 | −1.8 | 0.146 | 3 | +15.9 |
| 5 | vs North Dakota State | L 10-42 | +24.6 |
Remaining FCS games
- Wk 10: vs Youngstown State · p 0.399
- Wk 11: at Northern Iowa · p 0.323
- Wk 12: at Indiana State · p 0.214
- Wk 13: vs North Dakota · p 0.616
- Wk 14: at Southeast Missouri State · p 0.617
- Wk 15: at UC Davis · p 0.586
Not counted (opponent not FCS)
- Wk 1: at IowaFBS · L 0-40