Illinois State
MVFC · 3-1 vs FCS · 3-2 overall
Strength of record
#26
A #25-level team matches it 68% of the time
Power
#42
+5.4 pts · likely #18–74
Strength of schedule
30.0
#55 of 129
Strength of victory
16.2
#24
Record SOS
0.604
Opp. 58.3% · Opp. opp. 64.5%
Remaining SOS
45.0
9 games left
Record by opponent quality
Tier 1
#25-level or better
0-1
Tier 2
Strong
0-0
Tier 3
Middle
2-0
Tier 4
Weak
1-0
- Tier 1, #25-level or better:
- Would be favored over a #25-level team
- Tier 2, Strong:
- Beats a #25-level team 25–50% of the time
- Tier 3, Middle:
- Beats a #25-level team 10–25% of the time
- Tier 4, Weak:
- Beats a #25-level team under 10% of the time
Counted games (4)
Opponent strength leaves out every game against Illinois State. p = Φ((strength + site − 8.98) / 14.72), the chance a #25-level team loses that game. SOS is the average p; SOV is the average over wins.
| Wk | Opponent | Result | Opp. strength | Site | p | Tier | Game power |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | at North Alabama | W 24-17 | −3.6 | +2.1 | 0.237 | 3 | +5.6 |
| 3 | vs Western Illinois | W 51-34 | −14.8 | −2.1 | 0.039 | 4 | +1.7 |
| 4 | vs Eastern Illinois | W 31-7 | −0.8 | −2.1 | 0.210 | 3 | +17.6 |
| 5 | vs North Dakota State | L 10-42 | +19.4 |
Remaining FCS games
- Wk 6: at Southern Illinois · p 0.510
- Wk 7: vs Missouri State · p 0.502
- Wk 8: at Murray State · p 0.213
- Wk 10: vs Youngstown State · p 0.427
- Wk 11: at Northern Iowa · p 0.453
- Wk 12: at Indiana State · p 0.201
- Wk 13: vs North Dakota · p 0.625
- Wk 14: at Southeast Missouri State · p 0.595
- Wk 15: at UC Davis · p 0.520
Not counted (opponent not FCS)
- Wk 1: at IowaFBS · L 0-40