Wagner
NEC · 3-3 vs FCS · 3-5 overall
Strength of record
#85
A #25-level team matches it 99% of the time
Power
#118
−13.7 pts · likely #96–125
Strength of schedule
18.8
#118 of 128
Strength of victory
13.3
#72
Record SOS
0.373
Opp. 34.8% · Opp. opp. 42.3%
Remaining SOS
18.1
2 games left
Record by opponent quality
Tier 1
#25-level or better
0-0
Tier 2
Strong
0-1
Tier 3
Middle
2-1
Tier 4
Weak
1-1
- Tier 1, #25-level or better:
- Would be favored over a #25-level team
- Tier 2, Strong:
- Beats a #25-level team 25–50% of the time
- Tier 3, Middle:
- Beats a #25-level team 10–25% of the time
- Tier 4, Weak:
- Beats a #25-level team under 10% of the time
Counted games (6)
Opponent strength leaves out every game against Wagner. p = Φ((strength + site − 8.98) / 14.72), the chance a #25-level team loses that game. SOS is the average p; SOV is the average over wins.
| Wk | Opponent | Result | Opp. strength | Site | p | Tier | Game power |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | at Fordham | L 16-46 | +4.5 | +2.5 | 0.447 | 2 | −21.9 |
| 3 | at Sacred Heart | W 17-10 | −11.5 | +2.5 | 0.111 | 3 | −3.0 |
| 4 | vs Merrimack | W 30-27 | +0.3 | −2.5 | 0.223 | 3 | +0.1 |
| 7 | at Saint Francis | L 7-31 | −3.8 | +2.5 |
Remaining FCS games
- Wk 10: vs Duquesne · p 0.246
- Wk 11: at Long Island · p 0.117
Not counted (opponent not FCS)
- Wk 2: at NavyFBS · L 0-24
- Wk 5: at RutgersFBS · L 3-52