Montana State
Big Sky · 6-2 vs FCS · 6-2 overall
Strength of record
#11
A #25-level team matches it 21% of the time
Power
#2
+21.4 pts · likely #2–8
Strength of schedule
42.1
#17 of 128
Strength of victory
28.5
#31
Record SOS
0.580
Opp. 59.0% · Opp. opp. 56.2%
Remaining SOS
47.1
4 games left
Record by opponent quality
Tier 1
#25-level or better
1-2
Tier 2
Strong
2-0
Tier 3
Middle
1-0
Tier 4
Weak
2-0
- Tier 1, #25-level or better:
- Would be favored over a #25-level team
- Tier 2, Strong:
- Beats a #25-level team 25–50% of the time
- Tier 3, Middle:
- Beats a #25-level team 10–25% of the time
- Tier 4, Weak:
- Beats a #25-level team under 10% of the time
Counted games (8)
Opponent strength leaves out every game against Montana State. p = Φ((strength + site − 8.98) / 14.72), the chance a #25-level team loses that game. SOS is the average p; SOV is the average over wins.
| Wk | Opponent | Result | Opp. strength | Site | p | Tier | Game power |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | vs Utah Tech | W 63-20 | −2.7 | −2.5 | 0.168 | 3 | +28.9 |
| 2 | at South Dakota State | L 16-20 | +30.5 | +2.5 | 0.949 | 1 | +27.8 |
| 3 | vs Stetson | W 57-20 | −19.6 | −2.5 | 0.017 | 4 | +14.5 |
| 4 | at Weber State | W 40-0 | +5.2 | +2.5 |
Remaining FCS games
- Wk 10: vs Northern Arizona · p 0.313
- Wk 11: vs Eastern Washington · p 0.250
- Wk 12: at Montana · p 0.656
- Wk 14: vs North Dakota State · p 0.665