Illinois State
MVFC · 3-1 vs FCS · 3-1 overall
Strength of record
#54
A #25-level team matches it 93% of the time
Power
#35
+7.3 pts · likely #14–63
Strength of schedule
13.1
#106 of 128
Strength of victory
7.3
#33
Record SOS
0.317
Opp. 33.3% · Opp. opp. 28.5%
Remaining SOS
43.5
7 games left
Record by opponent quality
Tier 1
#25-level or better
0-0
Tier 2
Strong
0-1
Tier 3
Middle
1-0
Tier 4
Weak
2-0
- Tier 1, #25-level or better:
- Would be favored over a #25-level team
- Tier 2, Strong:
- Beats a #25-level team 25–50% of the time
- Tier 3, Middle:
- Beats a #25-level team 10–25% of the time
- Tier 4, Weak:
- Beats a #25-level team under 10% of the time
Counted games (4)
Opponent strength leaves out every game against Illinois State. p = Φ((strength + site − 8.98) / 14.72), the chance a #25-level team loses that game. SOS is the average p; SOV is the average over wins.
| Wk | Opponent | Result | Opp. strength | Site | p | Tier | Game power |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | vs Dayton | W 41-0 | −11.5 | −2.6 | 0.058 | 4 | +18.7 |
| 2 | at Western Illinois | W 34-18 | −12.1 | +2.6 | 0.105 | 3 | +6.8 |
| 3 | at Eastern Illinois | L 13-14 | −1.3 | +2.6 | 0.302 | 2 | +1.1 |
| 4 | vs Lindenwood | W 48-17 | −11.7 | −2.6 |
Remaining FCS games
- Wk 6: vs South Dakota State · p 0.780
- Wk 7: vs Indiana State · p 0.065
- Wk 8: at Youngstown State · p 0.534
- Wk 9: vs Northern Iowa · p 0.368
- Wk 10: at Missouri State · p 0.569
- Wk 11: vs Murray State · p 0.121
- Wk 12: at North Dakota · p 0.606