Illinois State
MVFC · 4-1 vs FCS · 4-2 overall
Strength of record
#31
A #25-level team matches it 58% of the time
Power
#44
+4.1 pts · likely #20–73
Strength of schedule
27.5
#86 of 130
Strength of victory
25.5
#24
Record SOS
0.512
Opp. 49.0% · Opp. opp. 55.6%
Remaining SOS
38.2
5 games left
Record by opponent quality
Tier 1
#25-level or better
0-0
Tier 2
Strong
1-1
Tier 3
Middle
3-0
Tier 4
Weak
0-0
- Tier 1, #25-level or better:
- Would be favored over a #25-level team
- Tier 2, Strong:
- Beats a #25-level team 25–50% of the time
- Tier 3, Middle:
- Beats a #25-level team 10–25% of the time
- Tier 4, Weak:
- Beats a #25-level team under 10% of the time
Counted games (5)
Opponent strength leaves out every game against Illinois State. p = Φ((strength + site − 8.98) / 14.72), the chance a #25-level team loses that game. SOS is the average p; SOV is the average over wins.
| Wk | Opponent | Result | Opp. strength | Site | p | Tier | Game power |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | vs Valparaiso | W 28-21 | −3.8 | −1.7 | 0.163 | 3 | +2.6 |
| 3 | vs Eastern Illinois | W 35-7 | −2.6 | −1.7 | 0.184 | 3 | +21.3 |
| 5 | vs Southern Illinois | L 14-19 | +5.3 | −1.7 | 0.356 | 2 | −0.4 |
| 6 | at Northern Iowa | W 23-21 | +6.6 |
Remaining FCS games
- Wk 8: at Indiana State · p 0.240
- Wk 9: at North Dakota State · p 0.624
- Wk 10: vs Youngstown State · p 0.333
- Wk 11: at South Dakota State · p 0.633
- Wk 12: vs Western Illinois · p 0.081
Not counted (opponent not FCS)
- Wk 1: at WisconsinFBS · L 0-38