Illinois State
MVFC · 4-2 vs FCS · 6-2 overall
Strength of record
#16
A #25-level team matches it 46% of the time
Power
#10
+16.2 pts · likely #4–23
Strength of schedule
43.9
#15 of 128
Strength of victory
34.6
#13
Record SOS
0.521
Opp. 51.2% · Opp. opp. 53.9%
Remaining SOS
61.0
4 games left
Record by opponent quality
Tier 1
#25-level or better
1-2
Tier 2
Strong
1-0
Tier 3
Middle
2-0
Tier 4
Weak
0-0
- Tier 1, #25-level or better:
- Would be favored over a #25-level team
- Tier 2, Strong:
- Beats a #25-level team 25–50% of the time
- Tier 3, Middle:
- Beats a #25-level team 10–25% of the time
- Tier 4, Weak:
- Beats a #25-level team under 10% of the time
Counted games (6)
Opponent strength leaves out every game against Illinois State. p = Φ((strength + site − 8.98) / 14.72), the chance a #25-level team loses that game. SOS is the average p; SOV is the average over wins.
| Wk | Opponent | Result | Opp. strength | Site | p | Tier | Game power |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | at Western Illinois | W 41-10 | +2.9 | +2.2 | 0.396 | 2 | +34.1 |
| 3 | vs Eastern Illinois | W 49-13 | −3.1 | −2.2 | 0.166 | 3 | +28.1 |
| 4 | at Northern Iowa | L 21-28 | +9.1 | +2.2 | 0.565 | 1 | +5.4 |
| 5 | vs South Dakota State | L 14-31 | +18.2 |
Remaining FCS games
- Wk 9: vs Murray State · p 0.060
- Wk 10: at North Dakota · p 0.782
- Wk 11: at Youngstown State · p 0.879
- Wk 12: vs South Dakota · p 0.717
Not counted (opponent not FCS)
- Wk 1: vs St. Francis (IL)Non-NCAA · W 76-0
- Wk 2: at Northern IllinoisFBS · W 28-24