Dayton
Pioneer · 4-1 vs FCS · 6-1 overall
Strength of record
#40
A #25-level team matches it 81% of the time
Power
#73
−1.9 pts · likely #45–100
Strength of schedule
16.7
#118 of 128
Strength of victory
18.2
#65
Record SOS
0.448
Opp. 41.9% · Opp. opp. 50.6%
Remaining SOS
4.2
4 games left
Record by opponent quality
Tier 1
#25-level or better
0-0
Tier 2
Strong
2-0
Tier 3
Middle
0-1
Tier 4
Weak
2-0
- Tier 1, #25-level or better:
- Would be favored over a #25-level team
- Tier 2, Strong:
- Beats a #25-level team 25–50% of the time
- Tier 3, Middle:
- Beats a #25-level team 10–25% of the time
- Tier 4, Weak:
- Beats a #25-level team under 10% of the time
Counted games (5)
Opponent strength leaves out every game against Dayton. p = Φ((strength + site − 8.98) / 14.72), the chance a #25-level team loses that game. SOS is the average p; SOV is the average over wins.
| Wk | Opponent | Result | Opp. strength | Site | p | Tier | Game power |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | at Eastern Kentucky | W 17-14 | −0.3 | +2.2 | 0.317 | 2 | +4.0 |
| 5 | at Drake | L 22-30 | −11.7 | +2.2 | 0.106 | 3 | −15.1 |
| 6 | vs Morehead State | W 56-28 | −25.5 | −2.2 | 0.006 | 4 | +0.8 |
| 7 | at Butler | W 19-9 | +0.5 | +2.2 |
Remaining FCS games
- Wk 9: at Stetson · p 0.017
- Wk 10: vs Valparaiso · p 0.054
- Wk 11: vs Davidson · p 0.003
- Wk 12: at Presbyterian · p 0.091
Not counted (opponent not FCS)
- Wk 1: vs Fairmont StateDII · W 43-20
- Wk 2: vs Thomas More CollegeDII · W 30-7