Valparaiso
Pioneer · 2-3 vs FCS · 3-3 overall
Strength of record
#103
A #25-level team matches it 100% of the time
Power
#113
−11.2 pts · likely #90–120
Strength of schedule
14.7
#120 of 128
Strength of victory
6.8
2 wins
Record SOS
0.356
Opp. 27.3% · Opp. opp. 52.3%
Remaining SOS
12.0
5 games left
Record by opponent quality
Tier 1
#25-level or better
0-0
Tier 2
Strong
0-1
Tier 3
Middle
1-1
Tier 4
Weak
1-1
- Tier 1, #25-level or better:
- Would be favored over a #25-level team
- Tier 2, Strong:
- Beats a #25-level team 25–50% of the time
- Tier 3, Middle:
- Beats a #25-level team 10–25% of the time
- Tier 4, Weak:
- Beats a #25-level team under 10% of the time
Counted games (5)
Opponent strength leaves out every game against Valparaiso. p = Φ((strength + site − 8.98) / 14.72), the chance a #25-level team loses that game. SOS is the average p; SOV is the average over wins.
| Wk | Opponent | Result | Opp. strength | Site | p | Tier | Game power |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | at Murray State | L 18-27 | −13.6 | +2.6 | 0.088 | 4 | −18.0 |
| 3 | at Indiana State | L 16-39 | −1.7 | +2.6 | 0.291 | 2 | −21.2 |
| 4 | vs Butler | L 28-33 | +0.2 | −2.6 | 0.219 | 3 | −7.7 |
| 5 | at Morehead State | W 37-3 | −22.3 | +2.6 |
Remaining FCS games
- Wk 7: at San Diego · p 0.093
- Wk 8: vs Presbyterian · p 0.075
- Wk 10: at Dayton · p 0.253
- Wk 11: at Stetson · p 0.018
- Wk 12: vs St. Thomas (MN) · p 0.158
Not counted (opponent not FCS)
- Wk 1: vs Lawrence TechNon-NCAA · W 59-13