Northern Arizona
Big Sky · 4-1 vs FCS · 4-2 overall
Strength of record
#9
A #25-level team matches it 22% of the time
Power
#20
+9.5 pts · likely #11–51
Strength of schedule
45.1
#17 of 128
Strength of victory
36.5
#8
Record SOS
0.541
Opp. 50.0% · Opp. opp. 62.4%
Remaining SOS
37.4
6 games left
Record by opponent quality
Tier 1
#25-level or better
1-1
Tier 2
Strong
2-0
Tier 3
Middle
1-0
Tier 4
Weak
0-0
- Tier 1, #25-level or better:
- Would be favored over a #25-level team
- Tier 2, Strong:
- Beats a #25-level team 25–50% of the time
- Tier 3, Middle:
- Beats a #25-level team 10–25% of the time
- Tier 4, Weak:
- Beats a #25-level team under 10% of the time
Counted games (5)
Opponent strength leaves out every game against Northern Arizona. p = Φ((strength + site − 8.98) / 14.72), the chance a #25-level team loses that game. SOS is the average p; SOV is the average over wins.
| Wk | Opponent | Result | Opp. strength | Site | p | Tier | Game power |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | vs Eastern Washington | W 34-27 | +3.5 | −2.8 | 0.288 | 2 | +7.6 |
| 2 | vs Incarnate Word | W 38-28 | +8.6 | −2.8 | 0.415 | 2 | +14.5 |
| 3 | at Utah Tech | W 35-23 | −9.1 | +2.8 | 0.150 | 3 | +6.5 |
| 4 | at Montana State | L 14-28 | +18.3 |
Remaining FCS games
- Wk 6: vs Montana · p 0.742
- Wk 7: vs Portland State · p 0.148
- Wk 9: at Southern Utah · p 0.505
- Wk 10: at Cal Poly · p 0.356
- Wk 11: vs Weber State · p 0.251
- Wk 12: vs Northern Colorado · p 0.243
Not counted (opponent not FCS)
- Wk 1: at ArizonaFBS · L 7-35