St. Thomas (MN)
Pioneer · 2-1 vs FCS · 4-1 overall
Strength of record
#24
A #25-level team matches it 65% of the time
Power
#41
+4.0 pts · likely #22–80
Strength of schedule
41.2
#24 of 128
Strength of victory
25.1
2 wins
Record SOS
0.606
Opp. 55.6% · Opp. opp. 70.8%
Remaining SOS
9.8
7 games left
Record by opponent quality
Tier 1
#25-level or better
0-1
Tier 2
Strong
1-0
Tier 3
Middle
0-0
Tier 4
Weak
1-0
- Tier 1, #25-level or better:
- Would be favored over a #25-level team
- Tier 2, Strong:
- Beats a #25-level team 25–50% of the time
- Tier 3, Middle:
- Beats a #25-level team 10–25% of the time
- Tier 4, Weak:
- Beats a #25-level team under 10% of the time
Counted games (3)
Opponent strength leaves out every game against St. Thomas (MN). p = Φ((strength + site − 8.98) / 14.72), the chance a #25-level team loses that game. SOS is the average p; SOV is the average over wins.
| Wk | Opponent | Result | Opp. strength | Site | p | Tier | Game power |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | at North Dakota | L 26-62 | +15.5 | +2.7 | 0.733 | 1 | −13.4 |
| 3 | vs Southern Utah | W 28-26 | +8.5 | −2.7 | 0.415 | 2 | +7.1 |
| 4 | vs San Diego | W 50-17 | −8.2 | −2.7 | 0.088 | 4 | +19.2 |
Remaining FCS games
- Wk 5: at Presbyterian · p 0.054
- Wk 6: vs Stetson · p 0.010
- Wk 8: at Marist · p 0.258
- Wk 9: vs Davidson · p 0.006
- Wk 10: at Butler · p 0.212
- Wk 11: vs Drake · p 0.098
- Wk 12: at Valparaiso · p 0.044
Not counted (opponent not FCS)
- Wk 1: vs Winona StateDII · W 15-9
- Wk 2: vs Northern MichiganDII · W 56-14