Montana State
Big Sky · 5-1 vs FCS · 5-2 overall
Strength of record
#12
A #25-level team matches it 25% of the time
Power
#2
+26.2 pts · likely #1–6
Strength of schedule
36.9
#35 of 129
Strength of victory
28.3
#23
Record SOS
0.577
Opp. 61.0% · Opp. opp. 51.0%
Remaining SOS
50.3
9 games left
Record by opponent quality
Tier 1
#25-level or better
1-1
Tier 2
Strong
2-0
Tier 3
Middle
2-0
Tier 4
Weak
0-0
- Tier 1, #25-level or better:
- Would be favored over a #25-level team
- Tier 2, Strong:
- Beats a #25-level team 25–50% of the time
- Tier 3, Middle:
- Beats a #25-level team 10–25% of the time
- Tier 4, Weak:
- Beats a #25-level team under 10% of the time
Counted games (6)
Opponent strength leaves out every game against Montana State. p = Φ((strength + site − 8.98) / 14.72), the chance a #25-level team loses that game. SOS is the average p; SOV is the average over wins.
| Wk | Opponent | Result | Opp. strength | Site | p | Tier | Game power |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | vs South Dakota State | L 24-30 OT | +23.4 | −2.2 | 0.796 | 1 | +18.9 |
| 3 | vs San Diego | W 41-7 | −2.7 | −2.2 | 0.173 | 3 | +28.6 |
| 4 | vs Mercyhurst | W 17-0 | −4.3 | −2.2 | 0.146 | 3 | +11.3 |
| 5 | vs Eastern Washington | W 57-3 | +4.5 |
Remaining FCS games
- Wk 9: at Cal Poly · p 0.474
- Wk 10: at Northern Colorado · p 0.329
- Wk 11: vs Weber State · p 0.235
- Wk 12: vs UC Davis · p 0.646
- Wk 13: at Montana · p 0.742
- Wk 15: vs Yale · p 0.474
- Wk 16: vs Stephen F. Austin · p 0.571
- Wk 17: vs (N) Illinois State · p 0.426
- Wk 17: vs Montana · p 0.634
Not counted (opponent not FCS)
- Wk 1: at OregonFBS · L 13-59