Montana State
Big Sky · 10-1 vs FCS · 10-2 overall
Strength of record
#4
A #25-level team matches it 1.6% of the time
Power
#2
+27.4 pts · likely #1–3
Strength of schedule
41.2
#22 of 129
Strength of victory
38.6
#7
Record SOS
0.582
Opp. 60.7% · Opp. opp. 53.2%
Remaining SOS
63.4
4 games left
Record by opponent quality
Tier 1
#25-level or better
2-1
Tier 2
Strong
4-0
Tier 3
Middle
4-0
Tier 4
Weak
0-0
- Tier 1, #25-level or better:
- Would be favored over a #25-level team
- Tier 2, Strong:
- Beats a #25-level team 25–50% of the time
- Tier 3, Middle:
- Beats a #25-level team 10–25% of the time
- Tier 4, Weak:
- Beats a #25-level team under 10% of the time
Counted games (11)
Opponent strength leaves out every game against Montana State. p = Φ((strength + site − 8.98) / 14.72), the chance a #25-level team loses that game. SOS is the average p; SOV is the average over wins.
| Wk | Opponent | Result | Opp. strength | Site | p | Tier | Game power |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | vs South Dakota State | L 24-30 OT | +17.3 | −1.6 | 0.675 | 1 | +13.9 |
| 3 | vs San Diego | W 41-7 | −0.7 | −1.6 | 0.222 | 3 | +32.0 |
| 4 | vs Mercyhurst | W 17-0 | −5.6 | −1.6 | 0.135 | 3 | +10.6 |
| 5 | vs Eastern Washington | W 57-3 | +4.2 |
Remaining FCS games
- Wk 15: vs Yale · p 0.575
- Wk 16: vs Stephen F. Austin · p 0.653
- Wk 17: vs (N) Illinois State · p 0.596
- Wk 17: vs Montana · p 0.712
Not counted (opponent not FCS)
- Wk 1: at OregonFBS · L 13-59