Illinois State
MVFC · 8-3 vs FCS · 8-4 overall
Strength of record
#19
A #25-level team matches it 26% of the time
Power
#21
+10.5 pts · likely #12–38
Strength of schedule
39.6
#25 of 129
Strength of victory
29.4
#24
Record SOS
0.502
Opp. 47.9% · Opp. opp. 54.9%
Remaining SOS
76.8
5 games left
Record by opponent quality
Tier 1
#25-level or better
2-3
Tier 2
Strong
1-0
Tier 3
Middle
4-0
Tier 4
Weak
1-0
- Tier 1, #25-level or better:
- Would be favored over a #25-level team
- Tier 2, Strong:
- Beats a #25-level team 25–50% of the time
- Tier 3, Middle:
- Beats a #25-level team 10–25% of the time
- Tier 4, Weak:
- Beats a #25-level team under 10% of the time
Counted games (11)
Opponent strength leaves out every game against Illinois State. p = Φ((strength + site − 8.98) / 14.72), the chance a #25-level team loses that game. SOS is the average p; SOV is the average over wins.
| Wk | Opponent | Result | Opp. strength | Site | p | Tier | Game power |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | vs Morehead State | W 41-13 | −17.6 | −1.6 | 0.028 | 4 | +10.2 |
| 3 | at Eastern Illinois | W 42-30 | −7.2 | +1.6 | 0.160 | 3 | +6.4 |
| 4 | vs North Alabama | W 38-36 OT | −5.2 | −1.6 | 0.142 | 3 | −3.2 |
| 6 | vs North Dakota State | L 16-33 | +31.4 |
Remaining FCS games
- Wk 14: at Southeastern Louisiana · p 0.693
- Wk 15: at North Dakota State · p 0.947
- Wk 17: vs (N) Montana State · p 0.892
- Wk 17: at UC Davis · p 0.667
- Wk 17: at Villanova · p 0.641
Not counted (opponent not FCS)
- Wk 1: at OklahomaFBS · L 3-35