Northern Arizona
Big Sky · 5-3 vs FCS · 5-4 overall
Strength of record
#25
A #25-level team matches it 50% of the time
Power
#33
+6.6 pts · likely #19–58
Strength of schedule
44.0
#14 of 129
Strength of victory
33.3
#11
Record SOS
0.508
Opp. 49.2% · Opp. opp. 54.1%
Remaining SOS
27.2
3 games left
Record by opponent quality
Tier 1
#25-level or better
1-2
Tier 2
Strong
2-1
Tier 3
Middle
2-0
Tier 4
Weak
0-0
- Tier 1, #25-level or better:
- Would be favored over a #25-level team
- Tier 2, Strong:
- Beats a #25-level team 25–50% of the time
- Tier 3, Middle:
- Beats a #25-level team 10–25% of the time
- Tier 4, Weak:
- Beats a #25-level team under 10% of the time
Counted games (8)
Opponent strength leaves out every game against Northern Arizona. p = Φ((strength + site − 8.98) / 14.72), the chance a #25-level team loses that game. SOS is the average p; SOV is the average over wins.
| Wk | Opponent | Result | Opp. strength | Site | p | Tier | Game power |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | vs Utah Tech | W 38-31 | −4.3 | −2.1 | 0.148 | 3 | +0.5 |
| 3 | at Southern Utah | W 52-49 | +11.0 | +2.1 | 0.609 | 1 | +15.4 |
| 4 | vs Incarnate Word | W 31-23 | +4.3 | −2.1 | 0.323 | 2 | +9.6 |
| 5 | at Portland State | W 31-17 | −6.8 |
Remaining FCS games
- Wk 11: vs Northern Colorado · p 0.213
- Wk 12: vs Cal Poly · p 0.308
- Wk 13: at Weber State · p 0.295
Not counted (opponent not FCS)
- Wk 1: at Arizona StateFBS · L 19-38