Illinois State
MVFC · 10-2 vs FCS · 10-3 overall
Strength of record
#8
A #25-level team matches it 7.2% of the time
Power
#12
+12.0 pts · likely #7–32
Strength of schedule
39.0
#27 of 129
Strength of victory
33.2
#16
Record SOS
0.498
Opp. 46.4% · Opp. opp. 56.7%
Remaining SOS
69.8
1 games left
Record by opponent quality
Tier 1
#25-level or better
3-1
Tier 2
Strong
3-1
Tier 3
Middle
4-0
Tier 4
Weak
0-0
- Tier 1, #25-level or better:
- Would be favored over a #25-level team
- Tier 2, Strong:
- Beats a #25-level team 25–50% of the time
- Tier 3, Middle:
- Beats a #25-level team 10–25% of the time
- Tier 4, Weak:
- Beats a #25-level team under 10% of the time
Counted games (12)
Opponent strength leaves out every game against Illinois State. p = Φ((strength + site − 8.98) / 14.72), the chance a #25-level team loses that game. SOS is the average p; SOV is the average over wins.
| Wk | Opponent | Result | Opp. strength | Site | p | Tier | Game power |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | at North Alabama | W 24-17 | +2.4 | +2.4 | 0.388 | 2 | +11.5 |
| 3 | vs Western Illinois | W 51-34 | −5.5 | −2.4 | 0.126 | 3 | +8.6 |
| 4 | vs Eastern Illinois | W 31-7 | −6.1 | −2.4 | 0.117 | 3 | +15.2 |
| 5 | vs North Dakota State | L 10-42 | +26.9 |
Remaining FCS games
- Wk 15: at UC Davis · p 0.698
Not counted (opponent not FCS)
- Wk 1: at IowaFBS · L 0-40