Illinois State
MVFC · 8-2 vs FCS · 8-3 overall
Strength of record
#14
A #25-level team matches it 21% of the time
Power
#20
+9.7 pts · likely #10–45
Strength of schedule
36.1
#38 of 129
Strength of victory
27.7
#33
Record SOS
0.486
Opp. 43.2% · Opp. opp. 59.2%
Remaining SOS
58.2
3 games left
Record by opponent quality
Tier 1
#25-level or better
0-2
Tier 2
Strong
4-0
Tier 3
Middle
3-0
Tier 4
Weak
1-0
- Tier 1, #25-level or better:
- Would be favored over a #25-level team
- Tier 2, Strong:
- Beats a #25-level team 25–50% of the time
- Tier 3, Middle:
- Beats a #25-level team 10–25% of the time
- Tier 4, Weak:
- Beats a #25-level team under 10% of the time
Counted games (10)
Opponent strength leaves out every game against Illinois State. p = Φ((strength + site − 8.98) / 14.72), the chance a #25-level team loses that game. SOS is the average p; SOV is the average over wins.
| Wk | Opponent | Result | Opp. strength | Site | p | Tier | Game power |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | at North Alabama | W 24-17 | +2.1 | +2.2 | 0.375 | 2 | +11.0 |
| 3 | vs Western Illinois | W 51-34 | −8.0 | −2.2 | 0.096 | 4 | +6.2 |
| 4 | vs Eastern Illinois | W 31-7 | −6.4 | −2.2 | 0.116 | 3 | +14.9 |
| 5 | vs North Dakota State | L 10-42 | +27.1 |
Remaining FCS games
- Wk 13: vs North Dakota · p 0.508
- Wk 14: at Southeast Missouri State · p 0.532
- Wk 15: at UC Davis · p 0.706
Not counted (opponent not FCS)
- Wk 1: at IowaFBS · L 0-40