Merrimack
FCS Indep. · 4-3 vs FCS · 4-5 overall
Strength of record
#59
A #25-level team matches it 95% of the time
Power
#55
+2.5 pts · likely #30–79
Strength of schedule
23.6
#99 of 129
Strength of victory
16.7
#68
Record SOS
0.504
Opp. 49.9% · Opp. opp. 51.3%
Remaining SOS
12.0
2 games left
Record by opponent quality
Tier 1
#25-level or better
0-0
Tier 2
Strong
1-3
Tier 3
Middle
2-0
Tier 4
Weak
1-0
- Tier 1, #25-level or better:
- Would be favored over a #25-level team
- Tier 2, Strong:
- Beats a #25-level team 25–50% of the time
- Tier 3, Middle:
- Beats a #25-level team 10–25% of the time
- Tier 4, Weak:
- Beats a #25-level team under 10% of the time
Counted games (7)
Opponent strength leaves out every game against Merrimack. p = Φ((strength + site − 8.98) / 14.72), the chance a #25-level team loses that game. SOS is the average p; SOV is the average over wins.
| Wk | Opponent | Result | Opp. strength | Site | p | Tier | Game power |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | at Bucknell | W 31-21 | −4.6 | +2.5 | 0.227 | 3 | +7.7 |
| 4 | vs Maine | L 15-26 | +2.1 | −2.5 | 0.262 | 2 | −9.7 |
| 5 | vs Dartmouth | L 14-16 | +7.9 | −2.5 | 0.404 | 2 | +2.9 |
| 7 | at Morgan State | W 32-24 | −2.0 | +2.5 |
Remaining FCS games
- Wk 12: vs Sacred Heart · p 0.075
- Wk 13: at Fordham · p 0.165
Not counted (opponent not FCS)
- Wk 1: at Air ForceFBS · L 6-21
- Wk 2: at UConnFBS · L 17-63