St. Thomas (MN)
Pioneer · 4-3 vs FCS · 5-3 overall
Strength of record
#74
A #25-level team matches it 97% of the time
Power
#88
−5.2 pts · likely #63–106
Strength of schedule
25.1
#95 of 128
Strength of victory
8.9
#73
Record SOS
0.508
Opp. 52.1% · Opp. opp. 48.0%
Remaining SOS
5.9
3 games left
Record by opponent quality
Tier 1
#25-level or better
0-2
Tier 2
Strong
0-0
Tier 3
Middle
1-1
Tier 4
Weak
3-0
- Tier 1, #25-level or better:
- Would be favored over a #25-level team
- Tier 2, Strong:
- Beats a #25-level team 25–50% of the time
- Tier 3, Middle:
- Beats a #25-level team 10–25% of the time
- Tier 4, Weak:
- Beats a #25-level team under 10% of the time
Counted games (7)
Opponent strength leaves out every game against St. Thomas (MN). p = Φ((strength + site − 8.98) / 14.72), the chance a #25-level team loses that game. SOS is the average p; SOV is the average over wins.
| Wk | Opponent | Result | Opp. strength | Site | p | Tier | Game power |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | at South Dakota | L 0-24 | +12.0 | +2.4 | 0.644 | 1 | −10.1 |
| 3 | at Harvard | L 13-45 | +10.9 | +2.4 | 0.615 | 1 | −17.5 |
| 4 | vs Morehead State | W 35-28 | −13.0 | −2.4 | 0.049 | 4 | −7.7 |
| 5 | at Dayton | W 20-14 | −21.7 | +2.4 |
Remaining FCS games
- Wk 9: vs Marist · p 0.041
- Wk 11: at San Diego · p 0.092
- Wk 12: vs Valparaiso · p 0.044
Not counted (opponent not FCS)
- Wk 1: vs Black Hills StateDII · W 36-26