Murray State
MVFC · 2-3 vs FCS · 2-5 overall
Strength of record
#81
A #25-level team matches it 98% of the time
Power
#95
−7.4 pts · likely #68–113
Strength of schedule
35.1
#47 of 128
Strength of victory
4.6
2 wins
Record SOS
0.495
Opp. 48.0% · Opp. opp. 52.6%
Remaining SOS
60.9
4 games left
Record by opponent quality
Tier 1
#25-level or better
0-3
Tier 2
Strong
0-0
Tier 3
Middle
0-0
Tier 4
Weak
2-0
- Tier 1, #25-level or better:
- Would be favored over a #25-level team
- Tier 2, Strong:
- Beats a #25-level team 25–50% of the time
- Tier 3, Middle:
- Beats a #25-level team 10–25% of the time
- Tier 4, Weak:
- Beats a #25-level team under 10% of the time
Counted games (5)
Opponent strength leaves out every game against Murray State. p = Φ((strength + site − 8.98) / 14.72), the chance a #25-level team loses that game. SOS is the average p; SOV is the average over wins.
| Wk | Opponent | Result | Opp. strength | Site | p | Tier | Game power |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | vs Presbyterian | W 41-10 | −17.5 | −2.4 | 0.025 | 4 | +9.1 |
| 5 | vs Indiana State | W 30-28 | −10.8 | −2.4 | 0.067 | 4 | −9.9 |
| 6 | at South Dakota | L 7-38 | +11.1 | +2.4 | 0.618 | 1 | −17.1 |
| 7 | vs Southern Illinois | L 6-27 | +12.0 |
Remaining FCS games
- Wk 9: at North Dakota State · p 0.782
- Wk 10: vs North Dakota · p 0.553
- Wk 11: at Illinois State · p 0.561
- Wk 12: vs Youngstown State · p 0.538
Not counted (opponent not FCS)
- Wk 2: at LouisvilleFBS · L 0-56
- Wk 3: at Middle TennesseeFBS · L 14-35