St. Thomas (MN)
Pioneer · 3-2 vs FCS · 4-2 overall
Strength of record
#51
A #25-level team matches it 89% of the time
Power
#81
−4.3 pts · likely #56–105
Strength of schedule
30.6
#67 of 128
Strength of victory
8.8
#44
Record SOS
0.583
Opp. 60.0% · Opp. opp. 55.0%
Remaining SOS
8.6
5 games left
Record by opponent quality
Tier 1
#25-level or better
0-2
Tier 2
Strong
0-0
Tier 3
Middle
1-0
Tier 4
Weak
2-0
- Tier 1, #25-level or better:
- Would be favored over a #25-level team
- Tier 2, Strong:
- Beats a #25-level team 25–50% of the time
- Tier 3, Middle:
- Beats a #25-level team 10–25% of the time
- Tier 4, Weak:
- Beats a #25-level team under 10% of the time
Counted games (5)
Opponent strength leaves out every game against St. Thomas (MN). p = Φ((strength + site − 8.98) / 14.72), the chance a #25-level team loses that game. SOS is the average p; SOV is the average over wins.
| Wk | Opponent | Result | Opp. strength | Site | p | Tier | Game power |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | at South Dakota | L 0-24 | +13.0 | +2.7 | 0.676 | 1 | −8.2 |
| 3 | at Harvard | L 13-45 | +9.6 | +2.7 | 0.588 | 1 | −17.3 |
| 4 | vs Morehead State | W 35-28 | −11.0 | −2.7 | 0.061 | 4 | −5.9 |
| 5 | at Dayton | W 20-14 | −18.2 | +2.7 |
Remaining FCS games
- Wk 7: at Drake · p 0.143
- Wk 8: at Stetson · p 0.091
- Wk 9: vs Marist · p 0.028
- Wk 11: at San Diego · p 0.124
- Wk 12: vs Valparaiso · p 0.043
Not counted (opponent not FCS)
- Wk 1: vs Black Hills StateDII · W 36-26