Montana State
Big Sky · 8-2 vs FCS · 8-2 overall
Strength of record
#11
A #25-level team matches it 15% of the time
Power
#2
+22.2 pts · likely #2–6
Strength of schedule
37.8
#33 of 128
Strength of victory
26.9
#40
Record SOS
0.532
Opp. 52.1% · Opp. opp. 55.2%
Remaining SOS
71.5
2 games left
Record by opponent quality
Tier 1
#25-level or better
2-2
Tier 2
Strong
2-0
Tier 3
Middle
2-0
Tier 4
Weak
2-0
- Tier 1, #25-level or better:
- Would be favored over a #25-level team
- Tier 2, Strong:
- Beats a #25-level team 25–50% of the time
- Tier 3, Middle:
- Beats a #25-level team 10–25% of the time
- Tier 4, Weak:
- Beats a #25-level team under 10% of the time
Counted games (10)
Opponent strength leaves out every game against Montana State. p = Φ((strength + site − 8.98) / 14.72), the chance a #25-level team loses that game. SOS is the average p; SOV is the average over wins.
| Wk | Opponent | Result | Opp. strength | Site | p | Tier | Game power |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | vs Utah Tech | W 63-20 | −3.2 | −2.7 | 0.156 | 3 | +28.3 |
| 2 | at South Dakota State | L 16-20 | +32.2 | +2.7 | 0.961 | 1 | +29.5 |
| 3 | vs Stetson | W 57-20 | −19.4 | −2.7 | 0.017 | 4 | +14.6 |
| 4 | at Weber State | W 40-0 | +6.8 | +2.7 |
Remaining FCS games
- Wk 12: at Montana · p 0.745
- Wk 14: vs North Dakota State · p 0.686