Illinois State
MVFC · 6-4 vs FCS · 6-5 overall
Strength of record
#44
A #25-level team matches it 79% of the time
Power
#59
+0.4 pts · likely #38–86
Strength of schedule
35.2
#39 of 130
Strength of victory
21.1
#54
Record SOS
0.495
Opp. 47.9% · Opp. opp. 52.8%
Remaining SOS
—
0 games left
Record by opponent quality
Tier 1
#25-level or better
1-2
Tier 2
Strong
0-2
Tier 3
Middle
3-0
Tier 4
Weak
2-0
- Tier 1, #25-level or better:
- Would be favored over a #25-level team
- Tier 2, Strong:
- Beats a #25-level team 25–50% of the time
- Tier 3, Middle:
- Beats a #25-level team 10–25% of the time
- Tier 4, Weak:
- Beats a #25-level team under 10% of the time
Counted games (10)
Opponent strength leaves out every game against Illinois State. p = Φ((strength + site − 8.98) / 14.72), the chance a #25-level team loses that game. SOS is the average p; SOV is the average over wins.
| Wk | Opponent | Result | Opp. strength | Site | p | Tier | Game power |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | vs Valparaiso | W 28-21 | −8.9 | −2.0 | 0.088 | 4 | −1.8 |
| 3 | vs Eastern Illinois | W 35-7 | −6.2 | −2.0 | 0.122 | 3 | +18.7 |
| 5 | vs Southern Illinois | L 14-19 | +5.8 | −2.0 | 0.363 | 2 | −2.2 |
| 6 | at Northern Iowa | W 23-21 | +11.9 |
Not counted (opponent not FCS)
- Wk 1: at WisconsinFBS · L 0-38