Illinois State
MVFC · 5-4 vs FCS · 5-5 overall
Strength of record
#44
A #25-level team matches it 83% of the time
Power
#55
+1.2 pts · likely #36–83
Strength of schedule
36.7
#26 of 130
Strength of victory
24.0
#34
Record SOS
0.538
Opp. 54.2% · Opp. opp. 53.0%
Remaining SOS
5.1
1 games left
Record by opponent quality
Tier 1
#25-level or better
1-2
Tier 2
Strong
0-2
Tier 3
Middle
4-0
Tier 4
Weak
0-0
- Tier 1, #25-level or better:
- Would be favored over a #25-level team
- Tier 2, Strong:
- Beats a #25-level team 25–50% of the time
- Tier 3, Middle:
- Beats a #25-level team 10–25% of the time
- Tier 4, Weak:
- Beats a #25-level team under 10% of the time
Counted games (9)
Opponent strength leaves out every game against Illinois State. p = Φ((strength + site − 8.98) / 14.72), the chance a #25-level team loses that game. SOS is the average p; SOV is the average over wins.
| Wk | Opponent | Result | Opp. strength | Site | p | Tier | Game power |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | vs Valparaiso | W 28-21 | −6.2 | −1.9 | 0.123 | 3 | +0.9 |
| 3 | vs Eastern Illinois | W 35-7 | −6.9 | −1.9 | 0.114 | 3 | +17.8 |
| 5 | vs Southern Illinois | L 14-19 | +5.8 | −1.9 | 0.366 | 2 | −1.6 |
| 6 | at Northern Iowa | W 23-21 | +9.0 |
Remaining FCS games
- Wk 12: vs Western Illinois · p 0.051
Not counted (opponent not FCS)
- Wk 1: at WisconsinFBS · L 0-38