Montana State
Big Sky · 8-0 vs FCS · 8-1 overall
Strength of record
#5
A #25-level team matches it 5.6% of the time
Power
#19
+10.7 pts · likely #7–39
Strength of schedule
26.2
#97 of 130
Strength of victory
26.2
#26
Record SOS
0.441
Opp. 38.4% · Opp. opp. 55.7%
Remaining SOS
50.1
5 games left
Record by opponent quality
Tier 1
#25-level or better
2-0
Tier 2
Strong
1-0
Tier 3
Middle
3-0
Tier 4
Weak
2-0
- Tier 1, #25-level or better:
- Would be favored over a #25-level team
- Tier 2, Strong:
- Beats a #25-level team 25–50% of the time
- Tier 3, Middle:
- Beats a #25-level team 10–25% of the time
- Tier 4, Weak:
- Beats a #25-level team under 10% of the time
Counted games (8)
Opponent strength leaves out every game against Montana State. p = Φ((strength + site − 8.98) / 14.72), the chance a #25-level team loses that game. SOS is the average p; SOV is the average over wins.
| Wk | Opponent | Result | Opp. strength | Site | p | Tier | Game power |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | vs McNeese | W 40-17 | −6.3 | −1.9 | 0.122 | 3 | +15.0 |
| 2 | vs Morehead State | W 63-13 | −13.9 | −1.9 | 0.046 | 4 | +19.7 |
| 4 | at Eastern Washington | W 38-35 | −5.6 | +1.9 | 0.194 | 3 | −0.3 |
| 5 | vs UC Davis | W 41-24 | +16.1 | −1.9 |
Remaining FCS games
- Wk 11: at Cal Poly · p 0.115
- Wk 12: vs Montana · p 0.585
- Wk 14: vs Weber State · p 0.589
- Wk 15: vs William & Mary · p 0.501
- Wk 16: at South Dakota State · p 0.715
Not counted (opponent not FCS)
- Wk 3: vs (N) Oregon StateFBS · L 28-68