Illinois State at North Dakota: FCS Playoff Résumé Preview

No. 11 Illinois State (7-2, 3-2 Missouri Valley) visits No. 10 North Dakota (6-4, 3-3) at 1 p.m. CT (2 p.m. ET) Saturday, Nov. 7, at the Alerus Center in Grand Forks, North Dakota. The game airs on Midco Sports and streams on ESPN+. Ranks are from our Week 9 FCS Top 25.

Both teams arrive needing a résumé win. Neither appears in the NCAA committee's second FCS top 10, released Thursday, and North Dakota fell out of that list after two straight losses. As far as Redshirt Sports knows, the committee does not use our poll, but the poll is a good indicator of how teams are viewed.

What this game means for both FCS playoff résumés

The FCS playoff field has 24 teams. Eleven conference champions earn automatic bids, and the committee picks 13 at-large teams. Youngstown State (5-1) and South Dakota State (4-1) sit ahead of both teams in the Missouri Valley standings, so an at-large bid is the more realistic route for either one.

Division I wins are part of that math. NCAA selection criteria says a team with fewer than six Division I wins may be in jeopardy. Both teams have six. Illinois State's 76-0 win over St. Francis (Ill.) came against a non-Division I opponent, so it does not add to that count. North Dakota has played Division I opponents in all 10 games.

The paths after Saturday look different. North Dakota has a bye, then hosts Southern Illinois on Nov. 21. Illinois State goes to No. 5 Youngstown State on Nov. 14 and hosts No. 7 South Dakota on Nov. 21. A win Saturday would give the winner a seventh Division I win, but it would not lock up a spot. The field is announced Nov. 22.

What the FCS-only numbers say

The Redshirt Sports FCS ratings count only games between two FCS teams, so every number in this section leaves out FBS and non-Division I games. Through Oct. 31, North Dakota is 6-3 in FCS games and ranks 13th in strength of record. Illinois State is 5-2 in FCS games and ranks 16th. Both rank in the top eight in power rating, with North Dakota sixth (+18.4) and Illinois State eighth (+15.7).

North Dakota's FCS schedule has been tougher so far, ranking 16th in strength of schedule to Illinois State's 26th. That flips the rest of the way. Illinois State's remaining FCS schedule rates as the hardest on the ratings page, with all three games against teams in our Top 25.

Illinois State: three straight wins behind the run game and defense

The Redbirds have won three in a row since a 31-14 home loss to South Dakota State on Oct. 3. They beat Southern Illinois 35-14 behind 28 second-quarter points and five sacks. They beat Indiana State 17-10 without scoring in the second half. Then they handled Murray State 35-14 last Saturday.

The Murray State win showed what head coach Brock Spack's team wants to be. Illinois State ran 53 times for 228 yards, held the ball for 36:23 and scored on all four red-zone trips. Sixth-year running back Victor Dawson ran for 99 yards and two touchdowns. Junior quarterback Beckham Pellant threw for 248 yards, and fifth-year receiver Ethan Loss caught two passes for 117 yards. Linebacker Tye Niekamp and defensive back Rico Clay each intercepted a pass.

Pellant has led the Redbirds in passing in each of the last three games. Fifth-year quarterback Gage Roy led them earlier in the season, including the 28-24 win at FBS Northern Illinois on Sept. 12. That result still adds to Illinois State's full-season résumé.

The two FCS losses show the margin for error. Northern Iowa gained 416 yards on 51 plays in a 28-21 win on Sept. 26, and South Dakota State ran for 239 yards a week later.

North Dakota: close games have gone the wrong way

North Dakota has lost three of its last four, all to Missouri Valley opponents, by a combined 13 points. The Fighting Hawks outgained Northern Iowa 367-144 on Oct. 10 but lost 24-17 after five turnovers. They lost 26-23 in overtime at South Dakota on Oct. 24.

Last week's 31-28 loss at Youngstown State stung the most. North Dakota led 28-14 in the third quarter, then gave up 17 straight points. Youngstown State scored the winning touchdown with 2:04 left on a 20-yard pass on fourth-and-19.

Head coach Eric Schmidt's team has been at its best at home. North Dakota beat South Dakota State 21-10 on Oct. 17 after leading 21-3 at halftime, and the Fighting Hawks are 4-0 at the Alerus Center this season.

Senior quarterback Jerry Kaminski has thrown for 2,188 yards and 22 touchdowns with six interceptions, and he has added four rushing touchdowns. At Youngstown State, he threw for 195 yards and ran for 44 more, but two interceptions hurt. Junior running back Matt Lawson, whose roster entry lists Illinois State as his previous school, ran for 99 yards in that game. Junior receiver Deng Deng leads the team with 49 catches for 690 yards.

Keys to the matchup

Ball security has shaped North Dakota's close games. The Fighting Hawks lost two fumbles at South Dakota and threw two interceptions at Youngstown State. Illinois State's defense has forced at least one turnover in each of its last three games.

Illinois State's run game will meet a defense that held South Dakota State to 10 points. If the Redbirds stay on schedule on the ground, they can shorten the game the way they did against Murray State.

The fourth quarter matters too. North Dakota did not score after the third quarter at Youngstown State, and Illinois State did not score in the second half against Indiana State. Whichever team finishes better will carry the stronger case into the last two weeks before Selection Sunday.