If the FCS Playoffs Started Today: Our 24-Team Bracket After Week 10

Lamar beat Stephen F. Austin 45-28, North Dakota routed Illinois State 49-21 and Mercer won 14-7 in overtime at Chattanooga. Princeton also beat Dartmouth 21-14. Those results moved two automatic bids, reshuffled the top 10 seeds and sent Illinois State to an unseeded road spot.

This is our fifth FCS playoff projection of 2026. It shows the field if the season ended today: the automatic qualifiers, at-larges, seeds, first-round pairings and first four out. All 16 seeds and the first-round road teams are our projection.

Every pick starts from the Redshirt Sports FCS Top 25 after Week 10. Tarleton State is still No. 1 with 19 of 22 first-place votes and 547 points. As far as Redshirt Sports knows, the committee doesn't use our poll, but it can be a good indicator.

Our After Week 9 projection had Dartmouth as the Ivy champion and Stephen F. Austin as the Southland champion. Both bids moved this weekend, and so did the top of our seed list.

How we set the seeds after Week 10

The Division I Football Championship Committee released its second in-season top 10 on Nov. 5, through games of Oct. 31. NCAA.com's breakdown of the committee's second top 10 presents it as the committee's final in-season ranking. We broke down each team's case in Inside the FCS Playoff Committee's Nov. 5 Top 10.

Last week, our seeds 1 through 10 matched that list because the committee had just announced it. This week's seeds are Redshirt Sports' own projection. We use the committee's final in-season top 10 as evidence, along with Week 10 results, our FCS Top 25 and our FCS-vs-FCS ratings.

Only one of the committee's 10 teams lost in Week 10, and it lost to another one. Lamar, the committee's No. 10, beat No. 3 Stephen F. Austin 45-28 in Beaumont and took the Southland lead. So we kept the committee's order unless a Week 10 result or a clear gap in our poll and ratings gave us a reason to move a team. Here is how our top 10 seeds compare with the committee's Nov. 5 list. Records are through Nov. 7.

1. Montana State (9-1), Big Sky. Committee's Nov. 5 rank: No. 1. The committee's most recent top 10 had the Bobcats first, and nothing in Week 10 overturned that. They won 28-26 in triple overtime at Idaho State and have the top FCS-vs-FCS power rating.
2. Tarleton State (10-0), UAC. Committee's Nov. 5 rank: No. 2. The Texans are unbeaten and No. 1 in our poll, but the committee had them behind Montana State. Their 40-27 win over Abilene Christian didn't change that, and their FCS-vs-FCS strength of schedule ranks 86th.
3. South Dakota State (8-2), MVFC. Committee's Nov. 5 rank: No. 4. The Jackrabbits move up one line after Stephen F. Austin's loss. They are No. 3 in our poll and first in FCS-vs-FCS strength of record, and they beat Youngstown State 27-20 and South Dakota 31-21. North Dakota beat them 21-10, but the Fighting Hawks have four losses and rank 13th in FCS-vs-FCS strength of record.
4. Youngstown State (8-2), MVFC. Committee's Nov. 5 rank: No. 5. The Penguins also move up one line. They are No. 4 in our poll and second in FCS-vs-FCS strength of record, and they beat South Dakota 47-28.
5. Northern Arizona (8-2), Big Sky. Committee's Nov. 5 rank: No. 6. The Lumberjacks move up one line as well. They are No. 5 in our poll and third in FCS-vs-FCS strength of record.
6. Lamar (8-2), Southland. Committee's Nov. 5 rank: No. 10. The Cardinals beat Stephen F. Austin 45-28, jumped from No. 12 to No. 6 in our poll and are fourth in FCS-vs-FCS strength of record.
7. South Dakota (7-3), MVFC. Committee's Nov. 5 rank: No. 8. The Coyotes had a bye in Week 10. They move ahead of Austin Peay because they are No. 7 in our poll and eighth in FCS-vs-FCS strength of record, while the Governors are 15th. South Dakota's FCS-vs-FCS strength of schedule ranks seventh.
8. Stephen F. Austin (9-1), Southland. Committee's Nov. 5 rank: No. 3. The Lumberjacks' only loss came 45-28 at No. 6 Lamar, so they drop behind the Cardinals on head-to-head. They are No. 9 in our poll but seventh in FCS-vs-FCS strength of record, which keeps them ahead of Austin Peay.
9. Austin Peay (8-2), UAC. Committee's Nov. 5 rank: No. 7. The Governors beat Eastern Kentucky 55-31 and are No. 8 in our poll. They drop two lines because their FCS-vs-FCS strength of record ranks 15th, the lowest of our top 10 seeds, and their FCS-vs-FCS strength of schedule ranks 89th.
10. Tennessee Tech (9-1), SoCon. Committee's Nov. 5 rank: No. 9. The Golden Eagles beat VMI 66-14, but Lamar's win moved the Cardinals past them. Tennessee Tech is No. 10 in our poll and ninth in FCS-vs-FCS strength of record.

How the field works

The bracket has 24 teams: 11 automatic qualifiers and 13 at-larges. The top 16 are seeded, and the top eight get first-round byes. Seeds 9 through 16 host the eight unseeded teams in the first round. The NCAA's 2026-27 Division I football prechampionship manual puts Nos. 1, 8, 4 and 5 in the upper half and Nos. 2, 7, 3 and 6 in the lower half. Seeds 16, 9, 12 and 13 also go in the upper half, and seeds 14, 11, 10 and 15 in the lower half.

We use the standard pairs inside those halves, so each first-round winner plays a fixed bye seed: No. 16 at No. 1, No. 15 at No. 2, No. 14 at No. 3, No. 13 at No. 4, No. 12 at No. 5, No. 11 at No. 6, No. 10 at No. 7 and No. 9 at No. 8. The manual says the unseeded teams are paired by geography, and conference teams that met in the regular season won't meet in the first round. If a league has four or more teams in the field, the committee may move a seed one line so they aren't all on the same side.

The automatic-bid leagues are the Big Sky, CAA, Ivy, MVFC, NEC, OVC, Patriot, Pioneer, SoCon, Southland and UAC. Selection Sunday is Nov. 22, and the first round is Nov. 28.

Our formula

We use the same steps as last week, with one change: the seeds are our own projection, not a copy of the committee's list. We also look at the Redshirt Sports FCS ratings and FCS-vs-FCS strength of schedule for results context. Those ratings count only games between two FCS teams. Every strength of record (SOR), strength of schedule (SOS) and power figure in this story is FCS-vs-FCS only and is not based on the full schedule. The ratings are one piece of evidence for the seeds. They don't set them alone.

1. Automatic bids go to the team with the fewest league losses today. Ties are broken by head-to-head result, then by rank in our poll, then by record against Division I teams.
2. To be an at-large, a team needs a winning record against Division I opponents and at least six Division I wins today, plus a path to seven. The manual says fewer than six Division I wins may put a team in jeopardy of not being selected. Teams at .500 or worse against Division I are out, no matter their wins.
3. Eligible teams are ordered by our poll. When teams are close in the poll, wins over FCS Top 25 teams come first, then Division I record. Only teams in our current FCS Top 25 count as ranked wins.
4. The seeds are our projection. For seeds 1 through 10, we start from the committee's final in-season top 10 and move a team only when a Week 10 result or a clear gap in our poll and FCS-vs-FCS ratings gives a reason. Seeds 11 through 16 follow our poll among the remaining teams that can host a first-round game, with one exception: Mercer moves one line ahead of Montana on FCS-vs-FCS strength of record. First-round road teams are our projection.
5. Each host's opponent is picked by distance. We don't pair conference opponents in the first round, even if they haven't played, and we avoid regular-season rematches in the first round. Second-round rematches are allowed. We also spread each league across both halves where the seeds allow.

Projected automatic qualifiers

• Big Sky: Montana State (9-1, 6-1). The Bobcats won 28-26 at Idaho State. Northern Arizona is also 6-1 after a 38-10 win at Cal Poly, but Montana State beat the Lumberjacks 28-14 on Sept. 26, so the bid stays in Bozeman. Montana visits Bozeman on Nov. 21.
• CAA: Monmouth (8-2, 7-0). The Hawks beat North Carolina A&T 21-17 and are still the only unbeaten team in league play. Campbell is 5-1 after a 48-35 win over Stony Brook. Monmouth visits Campbell on Nov. 21.
• Ivy: Harvard (7-1, 4-1). The Crimson beat Columbia 37-0, and Princeton beat Dartmouth 21-14. That leaves Harvard and Princeton tied at 4-1, and Harvard beat the Tigers 35-7 on Oct. 24. Dartmouth fell to 3-2.
• MVFC: South Dakota State (8-2, 5-1). The Jackrabbits won 41-15 at Northern Iowa. Youngstown State is 6-1 after a 62-35 win at Murray State, so both have one league loss. South Dakota State beat Youngstown State 27-20 on Sept. 19, which keeps the bid with the Jackrabbits.
• NEC: Central Connecticut (6-3, 5-0). The Blue Devils won 31-7 at Stonehill and are still the only NEC team without a league loss.
• OVC: Southeast Missouri State (6-4, 4-1). The Redhawks won 33-14 at Tennessee State. Western Illinois and Lindenwood are also 4-1, but Southeast Missouri State beat both, 40-30 over Western Illinois and 38-27 at Lindenwood, so it keeps the bid.
• Patriot: Lehigh (8-2, 6-1). The Mountain Hawks beat Colgate 33-7 and are alone in first. Villanova and Holy Cross are 5-2, and Villanova beat Lehigh 24-18 on Oct. 24. Lehigh plays at Richmond on Nov. 14.
• Pioneer: Dayton (8-1, 5-1). The Flyers beat Valparaiso 31-20, and Butler beat St. Thomas 41-14. Dayton and Butler are both 5-1, and Dayton won 19-9 at Butler on Oct. 17.
• SoCon: Tennessee Tech (9-1, 6-1). The Golden Eagles beat VMI 66-14. Mercer is 5-1 after its overtime win at Chattanooga, so both have one league loss. They haven't played, so the bid goes to Tennessee Tech as the higher team in our poll. Mercer visits Cookeville on Nov. 14.
• Southland: Lamar (8-2, 6-1). The Cardinals beat Stephen F. Austin 45-28, and both teams are now 6-1. Lamar's head-to-head win moves the bid from Nacogdoches to Beaumont.
• UAC: Tarleton State (10-0, 5-0). The Texans beat Abilene Christian 40-27 and are the only unbeaten team in the league. Austin Peay and Abilene Christian are 4-1, and Tarleton State beat both.

The 13 at-larges

1. Youngstown State (8-2). The Penguins won 62-35 at Murray State and are 6-1 in the MVFC. Their losses were 27-20 at South Dakota State and at Kentucky. They host Illinois State on Nov. 14.
2. Northern Arizona (8-2). The Lumberjacks won 38-10 at Cal Poly. Their losses were at Arizona and at Montana State. They are third in our FCS-vs-FCS strength of record, and they host Weber State on Nov. 14.
3. South Dakota (7-3). The Coyotes had a bye. Their losses were at Boise State, at Youngstown State and at South Dakota State, and they still own a 26-23 win over North Dakota.
4. Austin Peay (8-2). The Governors beat Eastern Kentucky 55-31. Their losses were at Vanderbilt and to Tarleton State. Their FCS-vs-FCS strength of schedule ranks 89th, and they host Abilene Christian on Nov. 14.
5. Stephen F. Austin (9-1). The Lumberjacks lost 45-28 at Lamar, their first loss, and gave up the Southland bid. That drops them from the committee's No. 3 to our No. 8 seed. They still have wins at Abilene Christian and over Incarnate Word, and they are 8-1 against Division I teams.
6. North Dakota (7-4). The Fighting Hawks beat Illinois State 49-21 and own a 21-10 win over South Dakota State. All 11 of their games have come against Division I teams, and their FCS-vs-FCS power rating is fourth-best in the country.
7. Montana (7-3). The Grizzlies beat Portland State 57-24. Their losses were at Oregon State, at Northern Arizona and to Idaho, and they have no wins over teams in our current Top 25. They host Idaho State on Nov. 14.
8. Mercer (8-2). The Bears won 14-7 in overtime at Chattanooga for their sixth straight win. Their losses were to Furman and at Georgia Tech, and they won at Abilene Christian.
9. Campbell (8-2). The Camels beat Stony Brook 48-35. Their losses were at Florida and 45-35 at UAlbany. They play at Elon on Nov. 14 and host Monmouth on Nov. 21.
10. Illinois State (7-3). The Redbirds lost 49-21 at North Dakota, which ended a three-game winning streak. They won at Northern Illinois of the FBS, and they are 6-3 against Division I teams. They play at Youngstown State on Nov. 14.
11. Weber State (6-4). The Wildcats had a bye. All 10 of their games have come against Division I teams, and they beat No. 22 Idaho State and No. 24 Idaho. They play at Northern Arizona on Nov. 14.
12. Idaho State (6-4). The Bengals lost 28-26 at home to Montana State. They won at Utah State of the FBS, and they are 6-4 against Division I teams. They play at Montana on Nov. 14.
13. Princeton (6-2). The Tigers beat Dartmouth 21-14 and are 4-1 in the Ivy, behind Harvard on head-to-head. All eight of their games have come against Division I teams. Their losses were at Bryant and at Harvard, and they beat UAlbany 22-0. They play at Yale on Nov. 14 and host Penn on Nov. 21.

Why Princeton and Idaho State get the last two spots

Incarnate Word is No. 20 in our poll, but it has five Division I wins. Its sixth win came against Oklahoma Panhandle, which isn't a Division I team, so the Cardinals fall short of the manual's six-win mark today. They also lost to Stephen F. Austin and Lamar, so they can't win the Southland bid. They finish with Nicholls and East Texas A&M, and two wins would give them seven Division I wins.

That opens a spot for No. 25 Princeton. The Tigers have six Division I wins and rank 18th in FCS-vs-FCS strength of record, ahead of Incarnate Word at 21st. No. 22 Idaho State takes the other spot with six Division I wins. No. 21 Abilene Christian and No. 24 Idaho are both 5-5 against Division I teams, so they fall below our .500 line. Southern Illinois is also 5-5, and Dartmouth is 4-4.

South Carolina State is No. 23, but it leads the MEAC at 3-0. The MEAC regular-season champion plays in the Celebration Bowl on Dec. 12, so we did not project the Bulldogs into the bracket. East Tennessee State is 5-4 against Division I teams with one game left, so it can't reach seven. UAlbany has six Division I wins but isn't in our Top 25 and ranks 26th in FCS-vs-FCS strength of record.

How we ordered seeds 9 through 16

Illinois State is No. 16 in our poll, but seeds 9 through 16 host first-round games. The first round is Nov. 28, and the IHSA state football finals are at Hancock Stadium on Nov. 27-28. So we left the Redbirds unseeded and sent them on the road. It's the same path as Illinois State's 2024 first-round road trip, and the Redbirds also opened at Southeastern Louisiana in the 2025 FCS bracket.

Lehigh takes the No. 16 line. The Mountain Hawks are No. 19 in our Week 10 FCS Top 25, behind No. 17 Harvard and No. 18 Weber State, but they have eight Division I wins, the most of the three. Harvard is 7-1 and has played two fewer Division I games, and the manual says the committee gives more consideration to teams that play more Division I games. Lehigh is also 17th in FCS-vs-FCS strength of record, ahead of Weber State at 20th. Harvard is 10th in that measure, so this is the closest call on our board.

Montana is No. 12 in our poll and Mercer is No. 13, but we seed Mercer one line higher because it is 14th in FCS-vs-FCS strength of record, ahead of Montana at 16th. Austin Peay, Tennessee Tech and North Dakota hold Nos. 9 through 11, and Monmouth, Campbell and Lehigh fill Nos. 14 through 16 in poll order.

What our FCS-vs-FCS ratings say

These numbers come from the Redshirt Sports FCS ratings after Week 10. They count only games between two FCS teams. FBS games and games against non-Division I teams are left out, so none of these figures is a full-schedule measure.

• South Dakota State is No. 1 in FCS-vs-FCS strength of record at 1.3%, just ahead of Youngstown State at 1.4% and Northern Arizona at 1.6%.
• Lamar is fourth in FCS-vs-FCS strength of record at 3.8%. Stephen F. Austin is seventh at 6.1%.
• Tarleton State is 9-0 against FCS teams, but its FCS-vs-FCS strength of schedule ranks 86th. That puts the Texans fifth in FCS-vs-FCS strength of record.
• Montana State has the top FCS-vs-FCS power rating at +22.6, with South Dakota State second at +22.4.
• Harvard is 10th in FCS-vs-FCS strength of record, the highest of any unseeded team in our field. Lehigh, our No. 16 seed, is 17th.
• Princeton is 18th in FCS-vs-FCS strength of record. Incarnate Word is 21st, and Idaho State is 49th.

Full projected field

Seeds 1-8 (first-round byes):

• No. 1 Montana State (Big Sky, automatic qualifier)
• No. 2 Tarleton State (UAC, automatic qualifier)
• No. 3 South Dakota State (MVFC, automatic qualifier)
• No. 4 Youngstown State (MVFC)
• No. 5 Northern Arizona (Big Sky)
• No. 6 Lamar (Southland, automatic qualifier)
• No. 7 South Dakota (MVFC)
• No. 8 Stephen F. Austin (Southland)

Seeds 9-16 (first-round hosts):

• No. 9 Austin Peay (UAC)
• No. 10 Tennessee Tech (SoCon, automatic qualifier)
• No. 11 North Dakota (MVFC)
• No. 12 Mercer (SoCon)
• No. 13 Montana (Big Sky)
• No. 14 Monmouth (CAA, automatic qualifier)
• No. 15 Campbell (CAA)
• No. 16 Lehigh (Patriot, automatic qualifier)

Unseeded:

• Central Connecticut (NEC, automatic qualifier)
• Dayton (Pioneer, automatic qualifier)
• Harvard (Ivy, automatic qualifier)
• Southeast Missouri State (OVC, automatic qualifier)
• Idaho State (Big Sky)
• Illinois State (MVFC)
• Princeton (Ivy)
• Weber State (Big Sky)

Bids by conference: Big Sky 5, MVFC 5, CAA 2, Ivy 2, SoCon 2, Southland 2, UAC 2, NEC 1, OVC 1, Patriot 1, Pioneer 1.

Projected pairings

Each first-round winner plays at a fixed bye seed, from No. 16 at No. 1 down to No. 9 at No. 8. We paired each host with an unseeded team by distance, kept conference teams apart and avoided regular-season rematches in the first round. The seeds and the first-round road teams are our projection.

• Princeton at No. 16 Lehigh. Winner at No. 1 Montana State.
• Illinois State at No. 9 Austin Peay. Winner at No. 8 Stephen F. Austin.
• Southeast Missouri State at No. 13 Montana. Winner at No. 4 Youngstown State.
• Dayton at No. 12 Mercer. Winner at No. 5 Northern Arizona.
• Central Connecticut at No. 15 Campbell. Winner at No. 2 Tarleton State.
• Weber State at No. 10 Tennessee Tech. Winner at No. 7 South Dakota.
• Harvard at No. 14 Monmouth. Winner at No. 3 South Dakota State.
• Idaho State at No. 11 North Dakota. Winner at No. 6 Lamar.

Princeton at Lehigh is the shortest trip on the board, and Harvard goes to Monmouth. Central Connecticut goes to Campbell. Illinois State can't open at North Dakota, its MVFC rival, so it goes to Austin Peay. Weber State and Idaho State can't open at Montana, because all three are in the Big Sky. Idaho State goes to North Dakota and Weber State to Tennessee Tech. Southeast Missouri State goes to Montana and Dayton to Mercer. None of the eight first-round games are conference matchups or regular-season rematches. Second-round rematches are allowed, though none of these pairings produce one.

The top half has Youngstown State and Illinois State, and the bottom half has South Dakota State, South Dakota and North Dakota. The Big Sky splits three and two, so neither five-team league needed a one-line seed move to avoid one side. The Southland, UAC, SoCon and Ivy each have one team in each half. Both CAA teams are in the bottom half, because Nos. 14 and 15 both sit there.

First four out

1. Incarnate Word (6-4). The Cardinals are No. 20 in our poll and have won four straight, but five of their six wins came against Division I teams. They lost to Stephen F. Austin and Lamar, and they finish with Nicholls and East Texas A&M.
2. UAlbany (6-4). The Great Danes lost 31-7 at Bryant and fell out of our Top 25. They still own a 45-35 win over Campbell, and they are 6-4 against Division I teams.
3. Villanova (6-4). The Wildcats beat Richmond 30-0 for their fourth straight win. They own a 24-18 win over Lehigh, and their 6-4 record includes a loss at Louisville.
4. Bryant (6-4). The Bulldogs beat UAlbany 31-7. They also beat Princeton 21-14, and their 6-4 record includes a loss at Army.

Dropped out since Week 9: Dartmouth lost the Ivy bid with its loss at Princeton. East Tennessee State lost 37-35 to Samford on the final play and fell out of our Top 25. The Buccaneers are 5-4 against Division I teams with one game left, so they can't reach seven Division I wins. UAlbany also dropped out of the field.

How this changed from Week 9

• Two new projected automatic qualifiers: Lamar for Stephen F. Austin in the Southland and Harvard for Dartmouth in the Ivy.
• In: Harvard, Princeton and Idaho State. Out: Dartmouth, East Tennessee State and UAlbany.
• Last week, seeds 1 through 10 matched the committee's Nov. 5 top 10. Lamar jumps from No. 10 to No. 6 after beating Stephen F. Austin, which drops from No. 3 to No. 8. South Dakota State, Youngstown State and Northern Arizona each move up one line. South Dakota moves from No. 8 to No. 7, and Austin Peay drops from No. 7 to No. 9 because of its FCS-vs-FCS strength of record. Tennessee Tech drops from No. 9 to No. 10. Montana State and Tarleton State hold their spots, and North Dakota stays No. 11.
• Mercer moves from No. 15 to No. 12 and Campbell from No. 16 to No. 15. Montana stays No. 13 and Monmouth stays No. 14. Illinois State drops from No. 12 out of the seeds after its loss at North Dakota, and Lehigh moves into the seeds at No. 16.
• Illinois State now opens at Austin Peay instead of Southeast Missouri State, which goes to Montana. Lehigh goes from playing at Monmouth to hosting Princeton. Weber State moves from North Dakota to Tennessee Tech, and Dayton from Montana to Mercer. Central Connecticut stays at Campbell.

What could change before Selection Sunday

• Nov. 14: Mercer at Tennessee Tech, Illinois State at Youngstown State, Weber State at Northern Arizona, Idaho State at Montana, Abilene Christian at Austin Peay, Lehigh at Richmond, Harvard at Penn and Princeton at Yale. The SoCon bid and two Big Sky at-large spots are in play.
• Nov. 21: Montana at Montana State, Monmouth at Campbell, East Tennessee State at Mercer, Yale vs. Harvard at Fenway Park, South Dakota at Illinois State, Southern Illinois at North Dakota and Western Illinois at Lindenwood. The Big Sky, CAA, Ivy and OVC races could finish on the final Saturday.
• Nov. 22: Selection Sunday.