FCS Playoff Auto-Bid Scenarios: Who Can Clinch in Week 11

Nine of the 11 automatic bids to the FCS playoffs could be settled Saturday, Nov. 14. Three teams control their own path: No. 1 Tarleton State, No. 10 Tennessee Tech and Central Connecticut all clinch with a win. Eight more teams can clinch with help.

We worked out every scenario below from the conference standings, each league's tiebreaker rules and the remaining schedules. Ranks are from our Week 10 FCS Top 25, and all kickoff times are Eastern.

The playoff field has 24 teams. Eleven conference champions get automatic bids, and the selection committee picks 13 at-large teams. The bracket is announced Sunday, Nov. 22, on a noon ET selection show on ESPNU. The national championship game is Jan. 11, 2027, in Nashville, Tennessee.

Win and in: Tarleton State, Tennessee Tech and Central Connecticut

United Athletic Conference. Tarleton State (10-0, 5-0 UAC) clinches the UAC's bid with a win at West Florida (4-4, 1-4) at 3 p.m. ET on ESPN+. The Texans are the only unbeaten team in the FCS and hold a one-game lead over Austin Peay and Abilene Christian, both 4-1.

Northeast Conference. Central Connecticut (6-3, 5-0 NEC) clinches with a win at LIU (3-7, 3-2) at noon ET on NEC Front Row. The Blue Devils have won six straight and lead the NEC by two games.

Southern Conference. Tennessee Tech (9-1, 6-1 SoCon) clinches the league's bid in its first SoCon season if it beats No. 13 Mercer (8-2, 5-1) at 2:30 p.m. ET in Cookeville, Tennessee. The game streams on ESPN+ and airs on Nexstar stations as the Ingles SoCon Game of the Week. Mercer clinches if it wins and East Tennessee State loses at Wofford (1:30 p.m. ET, ESPN+). If Mercer wins and ETSU also wins, the race goes to Nov. 21, when ETSU visits Mercer.

Needs help: Youngstown State, South Dakota State, Lamar and Lehigh

Missouri Valley Football Conference. No. 4 Youngstown State (8-2, 6-1 MVFC) hosts No. 16 Illinois State at noon ET on ESPN+. The Penguins clinch with a win and a South Dakota State loss at Southern Illinois (2 p.m. ET, ESPN+). No. 3 South Dakota State (8-2, 5-1) clinches with a win and a Youngstown State loss. The Jackrabbits beat Youngstown State 27-20 on Sept. 19, and they still host Indiana State on Nov. 21. Saturday is Youngstown State's regular-season finale.

Youngstown State's 11-game schedule. The Penguins will finish with one fewer game than every other team in the selection committee's Nov. 5 top 10, where Youngstown State sat at No. 5. They were supposed to play at Sacramento State on Sept. 19, but that game was canceled when the Hornets moved up to FBS. The MVFC then moved Youngstown State's trip to South Dakota State from Oct. 24 to Sept. 19, which left open dates on Oct. 24 and Nov. 21. Youngstown State never added a 12th game.

That could matter on Nov. 22. This year's NCAA prechampionship manual for the FCS playoffs says the committee "will give more consideration to teams that have played all Division I opponents and/or a greater number of Division I games." Last year's manual said only that the committee "may" give more weight to teams that played all Division I opponents. A win Saturday gives the Penguins the auto bid at 9-2, so the 11 games would only affect their seed. A top-eight seed would mean no game until the second round on Dec. 5, three weeks after the finale. A loss drops them to 8-3 and hands control of the bid to South Dakota State.

Southland Conference. No. 6 Lamar (8-2, 6-1 Southland) clinches with a home win over East Texas A&M (4 p.m. ET, ESPN+) and a No. 9 Stephen F. Austin loss at UT Rio Grande Valley (6 p.m. ET, ESPN+). Lamar beat SFA 45-28 last Saturday, and both teams are 6-1 in league play.

Patriot League. No. 19 Lehigh (8-2, 6-1 Patriot) clinches with a win at Richmond (2 p.m. ET, ESPN+) and a Villanova loss at Holy Cross (noon ET, ESPN+). Villanova and Holy Cross are both 5-2 in the league.

Needs help: Harvard, Monmouth and Montana State

Ivy League. No. 17 Harvard (7-1, 4-1 Ivy) needs three results to clinch the Ivy's bid. It has to win at Penn (1 p.m. ET, ESPN+), and it needs No. 25 Princeton to lose at Yale (noon ET, ESPN+) and Dartmouth to lose at Cornell (1 p.m. ET, ESPN+). Harvard and Princeton are tied atop the league at 4-1, and Harvard beat the Tigers 35-7 on Oct. 24. Dartmouth (4-4, 3-2) is the reason Harvard needs a third result. The Big Green beat Harvard 24-14 on Oct. 30, and the Ivy League's automatic-bid tiebreaker gives a two-team tie to the head-to-head winner.

Coastal Athletic Association. No. 14 Monmouth (8-2, 7-0 CAA) clinches if No. 15 Campbell (8-2, 5-1) loses at Elon at 2 p.m. ET on FloSports. Monmouth hosts Merrimack, an FCS independent, at noon ET on FloSports, so that result doesn't change the CAA math.

Big Sky Conference. No. 2 Montana State (9-1, 6-1 Big Sky) has the longest list. The Bobcats clinch if they win at Northern Colorado (2 p.m. ET, ESPN+) and three other teams lose: No. 5 Northern Arizona at home to No. 18 Weber State (4 p.m. ET, ESPN+), No. 24 Idaho at home to UC Davis (4 p.m. ET, ESPN+) and No. 12 Montana at home to No. 22 Idaho State (10:30 p.m. ET, ESPN2). That means the Big Sky picture may not be settled until the last game of the night.

Bids that can't be clinched in Week 11

The OVC and Pioneer Football League bids can't be decided Saturday. Western Illinois, Southeast Missouri State and Lindenwood share the OVC lead at 4-1. SEMO can clinch at least a share of the OVC title with a win at Charleston Southern and losses by Western Illinois and Lindenwood. That still wouldn't lock up the bid. Lindenwood's loss would come at UT Martin, and if the Skyhawks also win at SEMO on Nov. 21, they could take the bid out of a three-way tie at 5-2. Dayton and Butler lead the Pioneer at 5-1.

The MEAC and SWAC champions don't take part in the FCS playoffs. South Carolina State can clinch the MEAC title and a Celebration Bowl berth by beating North Carolina Central at 1:30 p.m. ET if Delaware State also loses at Howard. North Carolina Central clinches both with a win in Orangeburg, South Carolina.

More FCS playoff coverage

Our FCS ratings rank every team by strength of record using only games between two FCS teams. For how the committee saw the field in early November, read Inside the FCS Playoff Committee's Nov. 5 Top 10. As far as Redshirt Sports knows, the committee doesn't use our poll, but it can be a good indicator of how teams are viewed.

We'll also preview Mercer at Tennessee Tech and Illinois State at Youngstown State later this week.