Valparaiso
Pioneer · 2-4 vs FCS · 3-4 overall
Strength of record
#113
A #25-level team matches it 100% of the time
Power
#120
−14.8 pts · likely #106–123
Strength of schedule
13.0
#124 of 128
Strength of victory
6.4
2 wins
Record SOS
0.331
Opp. 23.9% · Opp. opp. 51.4%
Remaining SOS
13.9
4 games left
Record by opponent quality
Tier 1
#25-level or better
0-0
Tier 2
Strong
0-1
Tier 3
Middle
1-1
Tier 4
Weak
1-2
- Tier 1, #25-level or better:
- Would be favored over a #25-level team
- Tier 2, Strong:
- Beats a #25-level team 25–50% of the time
- Tier 3, Middle:
- Beats a #25-level team 10–25% of the time
- Tier 4, Weak:
- Beats a #25-level team under 10% of the time
Counted games (6)
Opponent strength leaves out every game against Valparaiso. p = Φ((strength + site − 8.98) / 14.72), the chance a #25-level team loses that game. SOS is the average p; SOV is the average over wins.
| Wk | Opponent | Result | Opp. strength | Site | p | Tier | Game power |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | at Murray State | L 18-27 | −13.2 | +2.4 | 0.089 | 4 | −18.7 |
| 3 | at Indiana State | L 16-39 | −1.7 | +2.4 | 0.287 | 2 | −21.9 |
| 4 | vs Butler | L 28-33 | −1.5 | −2.4 | 0.192 | 3 | −9.6 |
| 5 | at Morehead State | W 37-3 | −23.0 | +2.4 |
Remaining FCS games
- Wk 8: vs Presbyterian · p 0.070
- Wk 10: at Dayton · p 0.286
- Wk 11: at Stetson · p 0.020
- Wk 12: vs St. Thomas (MN) · p 0.179
Not counted (opponent not FCS)
- Wk 1: vs Lawrence TechNon-NCAA · W 59-13