Illinois State
MVFC · 2-2 vs FCS · 4-2 overall
Strength of record
#39
A #25-level team matches it 80% of the time
Power
#10
+15.3 pts · likely #3–29
Strength of schedule
43.8
#24 of 128
Strength of victory
24.1
2 wins
Record SOS
0.628
Opp. 70.8% · Opp. opp. 46.8%
Remaining SOS
53.6
6 games left
Record by opponent quality
Tier 1
#25-level or better
0-2
Tier 2
Strong
1-0
Tier 3
Middle
1-0
Tier 4
Weak
0-0
- Tier 1, #25-level or better:
- Would be favored over a #25-level team
- Tier 2, Strong:
- Beats a #25-level team 25–50% of the time
- Tier 3, Middle:
- Beats a #25-level team 10–25% of the time
- Tier 4, Weak:
- Beats a #25-level team under 10% of the time
Counted games (4)
Opponent strength leaves out every game against Illinois State. p = Φ((strength + site − 8.98) / 14.72), the chance a #25-level team loses that game. SOS is the average p; SOV is the average over wins.
| Wk | Opponent | Result | Opp. strength | Site | p | Tier | Game power |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | at Western Illinois | W 41-10 | −1.6 | +2.6 | 0.294 | 2 | +29.2 |
| 3 | vs Eastern Illinois | W 49-13 | −1.4 | −2.6 | 0.188 | 3 | +28.9 |
| 4 | at Northern Iowa | L 21-28 | +9.0 | +2.6 | 0.571 | 1 | +6.4 |
| 5 | vs South Dakota State | L 14-31 | +19.2 |
Remaining FCS games
- Wk 7: at Southern Illinois · p 0.597
- Wk 8: vs Indiana State · p 0.210
- Wk 9: vs Murray State · p 0.054
- Wk 10: at North Dakota · p 0.746
- Wk 11: at Youngstown State · p 0.886
- Wk 12: vs South Dakota · p 0.724
Not counted (opponent not FCS)
- Wk 1: vs St. Francis (IL)Non-NCAA · W 76-0
- Wk 2: at Northern IllinoisFBS · W 28-24