Merrimack
FCS Indep. · 2-2 vs FCS · 3-4 overall
Strength of record
#69
A #25-level team matches it 95% of the time
Power
#76
−2.4 pts · likely #47–101
Strength of schedule
26.4
#93 of 129
Strength of victory
15.9
2 wins
Record SOS
0.436
Opp. 43.8% · Opp. opp. 43.2%
Remaining SOS
33.0
5 games left
Record by opponent quality
Tier 1
#25-level or better
0-0
Tier 2
Strong
0-1
Tier 3
Middle
1-1
Tier 4
Weak
1-0
- Tier 1, #25-level or better:
- Would be favored over a #25-level team
- Tier 2, Strong:
- Beats a #25-level team 25–50% of the time
- Tier 3, Middle:
- Beats a #25-level team 10–25% of the time
- Tier 4, Weak:
- Beats a #25-level team under 10% of the time
Counted games (4)
Opponent strength leaves out every game against Merrimack. p = Φ((strength + site − 8.98) / 14.72), the chance a #25-level team loses that game. SOS is the average p; SOV is the average over wins.
| Wk | Opponent | Result | Opp. strength | Site | p | Tier | Game power |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | vs Central Connecticut State | W 16-14 | +0.7 | −2.2 | 0.239 | 3 | +0.3 |
| 5 | at Stony Brook | L 10-35 | +6.6 | +2.2 | 0.496 | 2 | −13.5 |
| 6 | vs Robert Morris | W 24-7 | −9.7 | −2.2 | 0.078 | 4 | +4.5 |
| 7 | vs Maine | L 13-20 | +1.0 |
Remaining FCS games
- Wk 8: at Harvard · p 0.801
- Wk 10: at Colgate · p 0.413
- Wk 11: at New Haven · p 0.076
- Wk 12: at Sacred Heart · p 0.266
- Wk 13: vs Fordham · p 0.095
Not counted (opponent not FCS)
- Wk 1: at Kent StateFBS · L 17-21
- Wk 2: vs St. AnselmDII · W 31-6
- Wk 3: at Kennesaw StateFBS · L 13-27