Illinois State
MVFC · 4-1 vs FCS · 4-2 overall
Strength of record
#32
A #25-level team matches it 64% of the time
Power
#37
+6.4 pts · likely #17–61
Strength of schedule
27.2
#89 of 129
Strength of victory
11.0
#55
Record SOS
0.418
Opp. 32.0% · Opp. opp. 61.5%
Remaining SOS
63.1
11 games left
Record by opponent quality
Tier 1
#25-level or better
0-1
Tier 2
Strong
0-0
Tier 3
Middle
2-0
Tier 4
Weak
2-0
- Tier 1, #25-level or better:
- Would be favored over a #25-level team
- Tier 2, Strong:
- Beats a #25-level team 25–50% of the time
- Tier 3, Middle:
- Beats a #25-level team 10–25% of the time
- Tier 4, Weak:
- Beats a #25-level team under 10% of the time
Counted games (5)
Opponent strength leaves out every game against Illinois State. p = Φ((strength + site − 8.98) / 14.72), the chance a #25-level team loses that game. SOS is the average p; SOV is the average over wins.
| Wk | Opponent | Result | Opp. strength | Site | p | Tier | Game power |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | vs Morehead State | W 41-13 | −19.8 | −2.2 | 0.018 | 4 | +6.3 |
| 3 | at Eastern Illinois | W 42-30 | −4.1 | +2.2 | 0.230 | 3 | +9.9 |
| 4 | vs North Alabama | W 38-36 OT | −9.8 | −2.2 | 0.077 | 4 | −7.2 |
| 6 | vs North Dakota State | L 16-33 | +31.6 |
Remaining FCS games
- Wk 8: vs Youngstown State · p 0.455
- Wk 9: at South Dakota · p 0.580
- Wk 10: vs Northern Iowa · p 0.213
- Wk 11: at Indiana State · p 0.270
- Wk 12: at South Dakota State · p 0.904
- Wk 13: vs Southern Illinois · p 0.621
- Wk 14: at Southeastern Louisiana · p 0.686
- Wk 15: at North Dakota State · p 0.948
- Wk 17: vs (N) Montana State · p 0.884
- Wk 17: at UC Davis · p 0.739
- Wk 17: at Villanova · p 0.641
Not counted (opponent not FCS)
- Wk 1: at OklahomaFBS · L 3-35