Illinois State
MVFC · 3-1 vs FCS · 3-2 overall
Strength of record
#35
A #25-level team matches it 68% of the time
Power
#31
+7.3 pts · likely #14–59
Strength of schedule
32.3
#61 of 129
Strength of victory
13.2
#40
Record SOS
0.476
Opp. 43.8% · Opp. opp. 55.3%
Remaining SOS
59.0
12 games left
Record by opponent quality
Tier 1
#25-level or better
0-1
Tier 2
Strong
0-0
Tier 3
Middle
2-0
Tier 4
Weak
1-0
- Tier 1, #25-level or better:
- Would be favored over a #25-level team
- Tier 2, Strong:
- Beats a #25-level team 25–50% of the time
- Tier 3, Middle:
- Beats a #25-level team 10–25% of the time
- Tier 4, Weak:
- Beats a #25-level team under 10% of the time
Counted games (4)
Opponent strength leaves out every game against Illinois State. p = Φ((strength + site − 8.98) / 14.72), the chance a #25-level team loses that game. SOS is the average p; SOV is the average over wins.
| Wk | Opponent | Result | Opp. strength | Site | p | Tier | Game power |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | vs Morehead State | W 41-13 | −17.2 | −2.3 | 0.026 | 4 | +8.4 |
| 3 | at Eastern Illinois | W 42-30 | −3.7 | +2.3 | 0.241 | 3 | +10.6 |
| 4 | vs North Alabama | W 38-36 OT | −5.3 | −2.3 | 0.130 | 3 | −2.9 |
| 6 | vs North Dakota State | L 16-33 | +29.8 |
Remaining FCS games
- Wk 7: at Murray State · p 0.116
- Wk 8: vs Youngstown State · p 0.488
- Wk 9: at South Dakota · p 0.574
- Wk 10: vs Northern Iowa · p 0.202
- Wk 11: at Indiana State · p 0.264
- Wk 12: at South Dakota State · p 0.902
- Wk 13: vs Southern Illinois · p 0.686
- Wk 14: at Southeastern Louisiana · p 0.698
- Wk 15: at North Dakota State · p 0.938
- Wk 17: vs (N) Montana State · p 0.872
- Wk 17: at UC Davis · p 0.722
- Wk 17: at Villanova · p 0.620
Not counted (opponent not FCS)
- Wk 1: at OklahomaFBS · L 3-35