Montana State
Big Sky · 3-1 vs FCS · 3-2 overall
Strength of record
#16
A #25-level team matches it 50% of the time
Power
#3
+24.8 pts · likely #1–8
Strength of schedule
38.8
#24 of 129
Strength of victory
24.1
#16
Record SOS
0.575
Opp. 58.3% · Opp. opp. 55.7%
Remaining SOS
46.5
11 games left
Record by opponent quality
Tier 1
#25-level or better
0-1
Tier 2
Strong
1-0
Tier 3
Middle
2-0
Tier 4
Weak
0-0
- Tier 1, #25-level or better:
- Would be favored over a #25-level team
- Tier 2, Strong:
- Beats a #25-level team 25–50% of the time
- Tier 3, Middle:
- Beats a #25-level team 10–25% of the time
- Tier 4, Weak:
- Beats a #25-level team under 10% of the time
Counted games (4)
Opponent strength leaves out every game against Montana State. p = Φ((strength + site − 8.98) / 14.72), the chance a #25-level team loses that game. SOS is the average p; SOV is the average over wins.
| Wk | Opponent | Result | Opp. strength | Site | p | Tier | Game power |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | vs South Dakota State | L 24-30 OT | +25.5 | −2.6 | 0.829 | 1 | +20.8 |
| 3 | vs San Diego | W 41-7 | −1.3 | −2.6 | 0.192 | 3 | +29.4 |
| 4 | vs Mercyhurst | W 17-0 | −2.1 | −2.6 | 0.177 | 3 | +13.7 |
| 5 | vs Eastern Washington | W 57-3 | +6.1 |
Remaining FCS games
- Wk 6: at Northern Arizona · p 0.587
- Wk 7: vs Idaho State · p 0.176
- Wk 9: at Cal Poly · p 0.488
- Wk 10: at Northern Colorado · p 0.216
- Wk 11: vs Weber State · p 0.247
- Wk 12: vs UC Davis · p 0.603
- Wk 13: at Montana · p 0.763
- Wk 15: vs Yale · p 0.488
- Wk 16: vs Stephen F. Austin · p 0.467
- Wk 17: vs (N) Illinois State · p 0.437
- Wk 17: vs Montana · p 0.642
Not counted (opponent not FCS)
- Wk 1: at OregonFBS · L 13-59