Montana State
Big Sky · 2-1 vs FCS · 2-2 overall
Strength of record
#15
A #25-level team matches it 71% of the time
Power
#3
+22.3 pts · likely #2–11
Strength of schedule
40.4
#14 of 129
Strength of victory
18.9
2 wins
Record SOS
0.619
Opp. 66.7% · Opp. opp. 52.3%
Remaining SOS
45.2
12 games left
Record by opponent quality
Tier 1
#25-level or better
0-1
Tier 2
Strong
0-0
Tier 3
Middle
2-0
Tier 4
Weak
0-0
- Tier 1, #25-level or better:
- Would be favored over a #25-level team
- Tier 2, Strong:
- Beats a #25-level team 25–50% of the time
- Tier 3, Middle:
- Beats a #25-level team 10–25% of the time
- Tier 4, Weak:
- Beats a #25-level team under 10% of the time
Counted games (3)
Opponent strength leaves out every game against Montana State. p = Φ((strength + site − 8.98) / 14.72), the chance a #25-level team loses that game. SOS is the average p; SOV is the average over wins.
| Wk | Opponent | Result | Opp. strength | Site | p | Tier | Game power |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | vs South Dakota State | L 24-30 OT | +25.1 | −1.8 | 0.835 | 1 | +20.7 |
| 3 | vs San Diego | W 41-7 | −4.0 | −1.8 | 0.158 | 3 | +27.3 |
| 4 | vs Mercyhurst | W 17-0 | −0.6 | −1.8 | 0.220 | 3 | +15.8 |
Remaining FCS games
- Wk 5: vs Eastern Washington · p 0.363
- Wk 6: at Northern Arizona · p 0.551
- Wk 7: vs Idaho State · p 0.136
- Wk 9: at Cal Poly · p 0.339
- Wk 10: at Northern Colorado · p 0.246
- Wk 11: vs Weber State · p 0.315
- Wk 12: vs UC Davis · p 0.602
- Wk 13: at Montana · p 0.750
- Wk 15: vs Yale · p 0.541
- Wk 16: vs Stephen F. Austin · p 0.471
- Wk 17: vs (N) Illinois State · p 0.437
- Wk 17: vs Montana · p 0.668
Not counted (opponent not FCS)
- Wk 1: at OregonFBS · L 13-59