Illinois State
MVFC · 4-2 vs FCS · 4-3 overall
Strength of record
#23
A #25-level team matches it 52% of the time
Power
#30
+7.6 pts · likely #16–58
Strength of schedule
40.8
#25 of 129
Strength of victory
28.4
#16
Record SOS
0.593
Opp. 56.7% · Opp. opp. 64.5%
Remaining SOS
42.4
7 games left
Record by opponent quality
Tier 1
#25-level or better
1-2
Tier 2
Strong
1-0
Tier 3
Middle
1-0
Tier 4
Weak
1-0
- Tier 1, #25-level or better:
- Would be favored over a #25-level team
- Tier 2, Strong:
- Beats a #25-level team 25–50% of the time
- Tier 3, Middle:
- Beats a #25-level team 10–25% of the time
- Tier 4, Weak:
- Beats a #25-level team under 10% of the time
Counted games (6)
Opponent strength leaves out every game against Illinois State. p = Φ((strength + site − 8.98) / 14.72), the chance a #25-level team loses that game. SOS is the average p; SOV is the average over wins.
| Wk | Opponent | Result | Opp. strength | Site | p | Tier | Game power |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | at North Alabama | W 24-17 | +3.3 | +1.7 | 0.393 | 2 | +12.0 |
| 3 | vs Western Illinois | W 51-34 | −11.7 | −1.7 | 0.065 | 4 | +4.2 |
| 4 | vs Eastern Illinois | W 31-7 | −4.6 | −1.7 | 0.150 | 3 | +15.9 |
| 5 | vs North Dakota State | L 10-42 | +23.2 |
Remaining FCS games
- Wk 8: at Murray State · p 0.174
- Wk 10: vs Youngstown State · p 0.429
- Wk 11: at Northern Iowa · p 0.374
- Wk 12: at Indiana State · p 0.217
- Wk 13: vs North Dakota · p 0.574
- Wk 14: at Southeast Missouri State · p 0.646
- Wk 15: at UC Davis · p 0.552
Not counted (opponent not FCS)
- Wk 1: at IowaFBS · L 0-40