Illinois State
MVFC · 4-1 vs FCS · 4-2 overall
Strength of record
#11
A #25-level team matches it 33% of the time
Power
#12
+12.8 pts · likely #6–39
Strength of schedule
38.5
#31 of 129
Strength of victory
28.4
#14
Record SOS
0.649
Opp. 64.7% · Opp. opp. 65.3%
Remaining SOS
41.9
8 games left
Record by opponent quality
Tier 1
#25-level or better
1-1
Tier 2
Strong
1-0
Tier 3
Middle
1-0
Tier 4
Weak
1-0
- Tier 1, #25-level or better:
- Would be favored over a #25-level team
- Tier 2, Strong:
- Beats a #25-level team 25–50% of the time
- Tier 3, Middle:
- Beats a #25-level team 10–25% of the time
- Tier 4, Weak:
- Beats a #25-level team under 10% of the time
Counted games (5)
Opponent strength leaves out every game against Illinois State. p = Φ((strength + site − 8.98) / 14.72), the chance a #25-level team loses that game. SOS is the average p; SOV is the average over wins.
| Wk | Opponent | Result | Opp. strength | Site | p | Tier | Game power |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | at North Alabama | W 24-17 | +0.1 | +1.7 | 0.312 | 2 | +9.7 |
| 3 | vs Western Illinois | W 51-34 | −9.1 | −1.7 | 0.090 | 4 | +7.7 |
| 4 | vs Eastern Illinois | W 31-7 | −0.9 | −1.7 | 0.216 | 3 | +19.7 |
| 5 | vs North Dakota State | L 10-42 | +22.5 |
Remaining FCS games
- Wk 7: vs Missouri State · p 0.498
- Wk 8: at Murray State · p 0.184
- Wk 10: vs Youngstown State · p 0.417
- Wk 11: at Northern Iowa · p 0.374
- Wk 12: at Indiana State · p 0.247
- Wk 13: vs North Dakota · p 0.573
- Wk 14: at Southeast Missouri State · p 0.583
- Wk 15: at UC Davis · p 0.474
Not counted (opponent not FCS)
- Wk 1: at IowaFBS · L 0-40