Northern Arizona
Big Sky · 4-3 vs FCS · 5-4 overall
Strength of record
#34
A #25-level team matches it 65% of the time
Power
#25
+8.8 pts · likely #11–53
Strength of schedule
43.7
#16 of 129
Strength of victory
27.6
#32
Record SOS
0.526
Opp. 53.1% · Opp. opp. 51.5%
Remaining SOS
28.6
4 games left
Record by opponent quality
Tier 1
#25-level or better
0-3
Tier 2
Strong
2-0
Tier 3
Middle
2-0
Tier 4
Weak
0-0
- Tier 1, #25-level or better:
- Would be favored over a #25-level team
- Tier 2, Strong:
- Beats a #25-level team 25–50% of the time
- Tier 3, Middle:
- Beats a #25-level team 10–25% of the time
- Tier 4, Weak:
- Beats a #25-level team under 10% of the time
Counted games (7)
Opponent strength leaves out every game against Northern Arizona. p = Φ((strength + site − 8.98) / 14.72), the chance a #25-level team loses that game. SOS is the average p; SOV is the average over wins.
| Wk | Opponent | Result | Opp. strength | Site | p | Tier | Game power |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | at Utah Tech | W 45-17 | −7.1 | +2.5 | 0.178 | 3 | +23.0 |
| 4 | at Incarnate Word | L 14-38 | +11.6 | +2.5 | 0.634 | 1 | −8.3 |
| 5 | vs Sacramento State | W 34-16 | +5.6 | −2.5 | 0.346 | 2 | +18.3 |
| 6 | at Idaho | L 17-23 | +9.7 | +2.5 |
Remaining FCS games
- Wk 11: at Cal Poly · p 0.176
- Wk 12: at Northern Colorado · p 0.126
- Wk 13: vs Eastern Washington · p 0.339
- Wk 14: at Abilene Christian · p 0.502
Not counted (opponent not FCS)
- Wk 1: vs Lincoln (CA)DII · W 66-6
- Wk 2: at ArizonaFBS · L 10-22