Morehead State
Pioneer · 2-5 vs FCS · 3-5 overall
Strength of record
#107
A #25-level team matches it 100% of the time
Power
#112
−11.9 pts · likely #90–121
Strength of schedule
23.8
#105 of 128
Strength of victory
5.8
2 wins
Record SOS
0.415
Opp. 39.8% · Opp. opp. 45.0%
Remaining SOS
14.5
3 games left
Record by opponent quality
Tier 1
#25-level or better
0-1
Tier 2
Strong
0-1
Tier 3
Middle
0-2
Tier 4
Weak
2-1
- Tier 1, #25-level or better:
- Would be favored over a #25-level team
- Tier 2, Strong:
- Beats a #25-level team 25–50% of the time
- Tier 3, Middle:
- Beats a #25-level team 10–25% of the time
- Tier 4, Weak:
- Beats a #25-level team under 10% of the time
Counted games (7)
Opponent strength leaves out every game against Morehead State. p = Φ((strength + site − 8.98) / 14.72), the chance a #25-level team loses that game. SOS is the average p; SOV is the average over wins.
| Wk | Opponent | Result | Opp. strength | Site | p | Tier | Game power |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | at Mercer | L 22-48 | +8.5 | +2.5 | 0.554 | 1 | −14.2 |
| 4 | at St. Thomas (MN) | L 28-35 | −3.6 | +2.5 | 0.247 | 3 | −7.1 |
| 5 | vs Drake | L 9-16 | −3.4 | −2.5 | 0.156 | 3 | −11.8 |
| 6 | vs Dayton | W 31-7 | −18.3 | −2.5 |
Remaining FCS games
- Wk 10: vs Butler · p 0.159
- Wk 11: vs Davidson · p 0.238
- Wk 12: at Presbyterian · p 0.038
Not counted (opponent not FCS)
- Wk 1: vs West Virginia StateDII · W 37-35